I don't think Climate alone will drive Detroit's or the 'rust belt's fortunes, though in due course, if things go as they seem likely to, they surely will be a contributing factor, but that may not begin in earnest for several years yet, or even a decade or more, and will likely begin as a slow process, picking up after key disasters, droughts or killer heatwaves. This is not something that will be material between now and 2030.

With that said, I do think those above with an extremely negative outlook on Detroit's future are wrong.

Go back in time for a moment and look at New York City circa 1985. Crime was much higher than today, subways covered in grafitti, 'Hell's Kitchen' strewn w/porn cinemas and peep galleries and open drug dealing.

Today, crime is down substantially, grafitti has been reduced 95% and Hell's Kitchen is now considered a family-friendly tourist area. It wasn't a miracle, it was a few investments, private and public and changed the narrative, with it, NYC's image and fortunes.

In Detroit, the single biggest symbol to outsiders, of the City's struggles was Michigan Central Depot. Restoration there is well underway, and is a narrative changer. So is Gordie Howe bridge, so is the current Mayor, so some new signature waterfront parks. Yes, the City and State still face many struggles. But regional cooperation on transit, among other things seems to have turned a corner; the overall economy is solid and Windsor, across the border is booming. A boom that given an interdependent supply chain for automotive and other manufacturing on both sides of the border is sure to have some spin-off benefits for Detroit.

There's some distance yet to go to get things where they need to be, rebuilding is a long process, and there will surely be some setbacks and disappointments along the way.

But I see no reason to believe that Detroit will not resume population growth in a material way, within the decade, and will not see further renewal, reduced crime, and greater opportunity. If a few key items can be addressed, this will accelerate. [[Credible transit is one key, and mitigating the near-downtown expressways is another).

When these and other items have shown progress, Detroit will do better, irrespective of the climate, but will surely benefit that much moreso when the latter becomes a more pressing issue.