Life In A Post Pandemic World

[old guy]

I’d like to get into a reasonably positive discussion here about

what we might be looking at in the hopefully not too distant future.
I have a small circle of friends that seem to think, for the most part that if things like the vaccine and several other situations work out, we might find ourselves in, not just a tenable, but somewhat good place. I do too, and I’m not generally all that positive, but I think there is a possibility.
Some people seem to think we might see something like the end of prohibition. I don’t know about that because it’s not just going to end on a certain date. It looks to me to be something more like the Great Depression which just slowly went away. Hopefully we’re not headed into some sort of situation like that.

What I am looking at is the fact that things are going to be different than they were pre pandemic, I think that’s a given. I’m starting to see people that are trying to figure out how they can get back into the flow of things, by simply observing how society has drastically changed in less than a year. I’m not talking about wealthy investors looking for businesses to dump a load of cash into. I’m talking about people that have taken a hit and are trying not to fall any further though the cracks that have been opening up.
I’ve been growing produce on a small scale on the side for a number of years and the interest I’ve seen in the last six months of people wanting to purchase it of start growing it is amazing. I know carpenters and welders that took a hard hit and now they’re seeing entirely different business opportunities for things that are in demand. I know a few people in the food service business that are really nervous but are finding possible alternatives for their businesses. There is a very good possibility that the mom & pop and small businesses can not only survive but make a comeback. I think that’s not only possible but essential. Might be the last chance.

Anyway, I’d like to share a few ideas and hear about what’s going on in other areas. The times they are a changing, again and it’s getting interesting. Plus, the days are getting longer after today, so that’s a plus. Oh yeah, seems like this should be a politics free zone. Please share what you’re seeing.

[Richard]

I think by nature we adapt to circumstances,some will and some will not,more specifically in the current restaurant aspect those who adapted fast made more revenue in 6 months then they made all last year.

I will give a personal experience,I was a building contractor before the crash 2006 ish ,work dried up to a halt,but at the same time the food truck craze started taking off.

So I transitioned into build those,useing pretty much that same skill set.

How that started to gain momentum was,people were getting laid off left and right,they had 401ks that they could come up with a lump sum.

Banks were not loaning on food trucks at that time and most came up with 30 to 80k so they were looking at what they could do with that money in order to earn an income.

We went locally from having 100 food trucks to over 600 in the 7 years,but the people that purchased them came from all walks of life.

Also in the trades aspect with carpenters,block layers etc,a lot went up to work in the oil fields and never looked back,that is what caused a lot of the current labor shortages.

People set up booths at the flea market,I have several friends that had a acre of land that were lucky enough to be close to the urban core and they did the same with vegetables and fresh eggs etc. they do really well with it.

I seem to always do better in finding a nich market verses trying to compete with the big Corps,but that is what we have always done as Americans,adapt and hustle.

But on the other hand we also have a short memory and this will at some time be behind us and things will continue on constantly evolving as they always have.

The interesting part to me anyways,is what drives people and the amount of people in business that give up so easily.

Example ,I deal with a lot of restaurants,restrictions are placed and most just close their doors,so I asked them why?

They say,it is take out only,I told them so you cut a hole in the wall and stick a carry out window in,sign up with the delivery services and keep going.

Its life adapt or crash,one cannot take the time to look at failure.

It has always remained popular in Miami but where I am at now people are starting to do the drive the truck through the neighborhoods again selling veggies and farmer’s markets.

The worse thing for people to me anyways, is relying on uncertainty,the ones who brush that aside and move forward with a plan and take control of their destiny are the ones that will survive,you cannot do that waiting on others.

The weirdest hustle that I have seen was I sold some deep freezers to a guy that stuck them on a trailer,he goes up north somewhere and buys thousands of frozen mice and brings them back here and sells them to snake owners and he makes a really good living at it.

Another guy goes up into Georgia and buys 1000s of farm raised chickens with no additives,they are collected from small farmers and he sells them to restaurants and singular at $25 per chicken.

There are so many little hustles out there that are very lucrative outside of mainstream.

[old guy]

I do agree that most people, myself included tend to have a short memory when it comes to living through what seems to be a life changing event. This one is rolling out as what I see as a life changer that I haven’t
experienced before.
I’ve mentioned this before, but I grew up a little on the poor side. Raised primarily by my grandmother, who was born in the 1880’s. While most parents would read their kids bedtime stories, she would lecture me about the Great Depression, the 1918 pandemic, World War 1, World War 2, alcoholism and even gambling. I had grey hair and an ulcer by the time I was nine, but I was cautious, and still hear, a penny saved is a penny earned bouncing around in my head continuously.

I think a reasonable amount of people will glean something from this ordeal. The fact that it’s a world wide situation is, I believe going to have profoundly deep ramifications on our day to day lives. I hope it will be a wake up call for how fragile our day to day living situation is if we aren’t paying attention.
I don’t think we should worry, but respond to the situation. Create new jobs. I hate terms like “think outside the box” but hey, this is a wake up call.

[Richard]

I hear you on the traumatized history lesson,I am 60 and was still getting it from a friend who passed away a few months back at 105,I learned a lot from their history and Kinda followed the same path as I watched others make it all and lose it all in the blink of an eye.

To me this pandemic is just another hurdle in a generation,no different then the ones who went to war at age 17 and never came back,we carry on.

The one thing that it has proven is how a majority of the population is predictable,lots got a large lump sum on top of their tax refund and slammed the economy into overdrive with spending,but yet we are also hearing that once it lifts we will be seeing one of the largest eviction and foreclosure events sense 2004.

Few seem to save for that rainy day and most still put their futures in the hands of others,then when something happens it makes things worse.

I think a few years down the road and it is over with things will just be back to the same until the next one hits or something else that could be worse.

When you compare what the other generations went through we do actually have it pretty easy,no toilet paper but we had food,power,water cable TV and Amazon when compared to a lot of the rest of the world we suffered under first world conditions and should find some solace in that.

On one hand and referring to post pandemic we have seen a huge transfer of wealth to a few corporations at the top at the expense of our mom and pop local businesses but there will always be somebody that will pick it up and replace them after the dust settles.

Game of Thrones

Its the wheel,it keeps turning and turning while those at the top stay the same,as the dragon lady found out,you cannot stop the wheel it will keep turning.

Technology changes things and it keeps evolving with a life on its own but for us little people at the bottom,not much changes,we just have to evolve also and try to grab one of the spokes as the wheel goes by.

But then again some times we think to much and make things more complicated in our head then it really is,uncertainty and fear of the unknown is our worst enemy and sometimes we take giant leaps when we should be taking baby steps into the unknown,that is what bites in the rear every time.

I do not buy into this new normal,they keep repeating it so people think it is normal when it is not.

They did not say this is the new normal during the depression,think about it,if you were born before 1925 you would not have seen any income stability until after 1945.That was the majority of most income producing years.

I do not think outside of the box,I throw that sucker away or leave it sitting there for others to fall into,while I go and create my own box.

People strive to be a millionaire,or at least look like they are one,when the first goal should be to be able to put ones hand in their pocket and pay their way and most will not be willing to make the sacrifice it takes to be outside of the box.

I see a penny on the ground,I still pick it up with the penny saved penny earned ringing in my ears.

The part they never told us ? Was when you get older you have to weigh the pain of straightening back up,after bending over to pick that little sucker up ,verses the value of the penny.

Strange month for me,I have found over $350 just laying in the street,$20 here $50 there,while looking for the pennies.

For a lot of us though there is no post pandemic,because we have still been working as if the pandemic was a inconvenience,which is probably not the best word to describe it,but for millions life did go on and the wheel did keep turning,so I am more inclined to view it as not as world changing as some believe.

But tomorrow is another day and plenty of more challenges ahead of us as always.Nobody said life is going to be easy.

My grandfather left the city life for farming,they spent the first Minnesota winter living in a one room tin shack with a dirt floor and 5 people,he traded eggs for lumber to build the house and barn.

My mother and her mother sewed and repaired clothes for others inbetween school and farming chores,because people did not have the money to buy new.

She saved all of those pennys and bought houses so by the time she was 18 she had 5 rental houses.

This pandemic as bad as it is does not even create the hardships that other generations have gone through and the world still moved on and prospered and it will again.

But then again the virus is mutating in the UK and could mutate into zombie status,then the toilet paper hoarders will have the last laugh because they will wrap themselves up in it to prevent the bites from penetrating.

Then they will have to change it to a newer normal.

Okay a really long post.

I have another friend who is in her 80s,at age 12 her mother died giving birth to her sister,her father was a worthless drunk and it was left up to her to care for the baby and her other brother and sister.

She would get up in the morning,feed everybody,then strap the baby in her back,walk the other kids to school then go to the fields as a sharecropper picking cotton,she was white but that was the only way a child could earn a living in order to feed her siblings.

At age 12

That story could be repeated many times over but is testimony to our fortitude as humans,we adapt and move forward.

Besides the world already went to hell in a hand basket when they told us Rap was the new normal,we just did not know it yet.

[Ray1936]

Post and responses are cumbersome. If you can't say it in a few sentences, forget it.

[old guy]

10/4

[Richard]

Post and responses are cumbersome. If you can't say it in a few sentences, forget it.

Short attention span?

The internet sure has a habit of producing a lot of little internet police.

Next you will be yelling for others to get off of your grass.

[Meddle]

I don't see any long term changes for most. Some of the businesses that closed will stay closed, but that happens every day all the time.

The biggest issue is how many people will get punched out for constantly saying ... back before the big bug hit, we did things different .....

People are just going to get tired of hearing about it after a few years.

[Richard]

Almost as tired as hearing “The new normal”,it was not like that before because it was not normal.

Is violent crime up over 40% in the big cities the new normal?

Or the inner cities that have online schooling that are showing an increase of over 400% in F grades the new normal?

[Ray1936]

Next you will be yelling for others to get off of your grass.

Grass? Grass? I doan' got no steenkin' grass.

[Zacha341]

No worries there! The new social engineers at the behest of their evolving sola scriptura of social justice and equity are talking of abolishing tests - and that english language AND math are racist any how.

I just so love the condescension [[uh-I'm mean the fairness) of it all... ... it will all seem so very reasonable and 'helpful' at first.

...Or the inner cities that have online schooling that are showing an increase of over 400% in F grades the new normal?

[old guy]

So anyway, I do think that things will get better by spring. I believe that we probably are in for some bleak times short term. It’s inevitable with the back to back holidays, the cold weather and ten months of people twiddling their thumbs and saying I can do this. I’m actually really impressed with the fact that the entire planet has more or less held it together this long.
It’s pretty impressive if you think about it.

I have more to say, but I better hold off.

[Jimaz]

Wikipedia's List of epidemics leads to information about the economic aftermath of previous pandemics. Surprisingly, in general, economies improved for most people. There's a theory that the Black Death led to the Renaissance.

One major difference this time is that the internet allowed some work to continue more or less normally throughout the pandemic.

Little did we know how crucial the internet would become.

[bust]

Wikipedia's List of epidemics leads to information about the economic aftermath of previous pandemics. Surprisingly, in general, economies improved for most people. There's a theory that the Black Death lead to the Renaissance.

Haven't yet had a chance to read your links but others have argued that the "Roaring '20" was at least in part a response to the Flu pandemic during 1917/18.

I don't yet know of any convincing evidence, but in the realm of economics I'm not sure that exists.

[Jimaz]

... others have argued that the "Roaring '20" was at least in part a response to the Flu pandemic during 1917/18....

Then the Roaring 20s led to the Great Depression like a yoyo.

... I don't yet know of any convincing evidence, but in the realm of economics I'm not sure that exists.

That is so true.

[old guy]

I’d have to agree with those last few posts. One odd fact was that prohibition started in 1919. But again, that spurred a whole different underground economy that really flourished. Prohibition lasted until early 1933. Picture that. Sorry, the bars are going to be closed for the next fourteen years. Ten years after they close the bars, the entire world economy fails and it’s “sorry, there’s no jobs.”

Massive infrastructure rebuild. I think that’s key moving forward. Not all the glitzy do nothing projects. The kind of infrastructure that you don’t see that keeps us all alive.

[Richard]

That’s what China did,instead of providing direct stimulus to the people they embarked on a multi trillion dollar infrastructure rebuild.

The only problem there was because of the demand for steel that was required,the global shipping companies found it more feasible to scrap thousands of ships instead of paying port fees and crews to man ships sitting there while ports were locked down.

Many of these ships still had 20 years of use left on them,so when the global markets open back up it will be a few years before the industry will be able to build new ships in order to feed the demand.

That will drive up the cost and create shortages where one depends on the global market,and drive up the cost of materials.

I watched a program on the last trip of the Henry Ford in 1984,it was a taconite hauler ship that used to make 53 trips every season filled with 23 tons of taconite from Duluth Minnesota to the Ford steel plant in Detroit.

Minnesota taconite fields are no longer productive,they are played out,in 1977 we produced over 200 million tons of steel in this country,at the time of Fords last run we were at 23 million tons.

1945 the US produced 68% of the worlds steel.

Here is the problem with infrastructure,it takes steel and lots of it,we no longer have the capacity or even a trained labor force to create it let alone the materials to produce it.

Our future infrastructure investments are now controlled by a foreign global market,we are no longer in control of our own market and the cost of future infrastructure will be determined pretty much everybody else but us.

As it is right now in the construction industry,materials are at the highest cost point then they have been for many years,if we start a massive infrastructure push now it will literally shut down the rest of the construction industry and drive the costs at the consumer level through the roof literally.

Remember the last materials shortage caused cities to be gutted out due to scrapping for materials?

If we would have started our infrastructure rebuilding four years ago when we had support for it we would have been in control of the market worldwide materials related.

We did not and we continued gutting our capacity,now we are no longer in control and moving forward anything we do is going to be extremely expensive to the point where cities cannot afford it so the bandaids will continue.

Every part of our life and the materials used in it are for the most part are imported and that cost is dictated to us,it dies not matter how much money we throw at it,until we take control of our economy and what it takes to build it,infrastructure will remain a talking point with little future for results.

I live by the port of Tampa ,every day massive scrap hauling ships are loaded with scrap steel and materials and sent to China.

It is processed there and diluted with inferior materials then sold back to us.

We do not have the production capacity to even process it here so we do not even have control over the very base of materials that are required for infrastructure.

That is why the term “ shovel ready projects “ became a word under the previous administration,because it involved projects that had already lined up the materials in order to proceed.

If we entered into a massive infrastructure project it would require a world of support literally.

Then there would be other countries that will be saying,hey we need this stuff for our infrastructure,why should it go to the US?

[old guy]

I’m curious to see what retail shopping will be like after the pandemic. For at least the last decade we’ve watched the demise of the brick & mortar stores. Most people seemed to be fine with that. Shopping online does make things easier. But like the saying goes, sometimes you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone. This was a case where we got to preview the future. The sudden elimination of small retail with the only options being big box or online might seem a bit restricting to life as we know it.

I think it might be interesting to see if people will decide they want to continue to embrace the shopping experience. It is after all a social thing to a lot of people. This might just be one of those unexpected detours in our vision of the future.

I’m sure that online shopping will continue to grow exponentially, but maybe we will see a resurgence in the brick & mortar stores. That wouldn’t be bad for the economy.

[Zacha341]

My tolerance for crowds that go into unruliness has lessened. So, for example, I never to that 'black Friday' scene. I'd enjoy continue doing some purchases online, especially eBay [[towards smaller indy sellers), reducing doing business with the all-mighty Amazon.

Though Ammy really does a great job with fast shipping!

[Jimaz]

There will come a day when we'll hear an official announcement that it is no longer necessary to wear masks.

The honor of making that announcement should go to Dr. Fauci.

[old guy]

Heh, I look forward to that day. I picture it like someone pushing a pressure relief valve, peoples heads popping up everywhere, smiling. I’m headed downtown. Time served.

[old guy]

I’m curious as to what the actual unemployment rate currently is, heading, hopefully out of this crisis. The claim is 6.7% but I believe that’s based on how many people are actually collecting benefits.
They claim that during the Great Depression it reached 25%, but many believe it was more like 50%.

The reason I’m curious is that where I live I’ve been talking to large contractors that can’t find anybody to work. I get it with what’s going on to some extent, but with all the people I see out and about lately, I just don’t get it.

[pjbear05]

No worries there! The new social engineers at the behest of their evolving sola scriptura of social justice and equity are talking of abolishing tests - and that english language AND math are racist any how.

I just so love the condescension [[uh-I'm mean the fairness) of it all... ... it will all seem so very reasonable and 'helpful' at first.

"English" racist? Didn't the Ann Arbor schools system get into it over a student being failed because her teachers didn't understand her speaking "Black English"?

[Zacha341]

^ I can only hope that particular student matriculated beyond that politic!

[old guy]

I guess I see light at the end of a really bad year, but I don’t think that’s the popular consensus. With the possible, probable chance of things getting better with a vaccine and warmer weather on the horizon, why aren’t people feeling somewhat more positive about our future.
I understand all the political divisions and all the hardships we’re having to endure, but, I don’t understand why we’re all fighting about what we all in the long run want to see happen.
We’re never going to find a way out of this bullshit unless we all take a step back and agree that we’re all in this together and it’s time to move on.
There are problems on both sides of the fence. Always have been. But having two sides to debate the problems is why we have a great country and a democracy. We need the ability to debate our differences and accept outcomes. There are winners and losers, depending on which way the wind happens to be blowing. We’ve lived with this concept for several centuries. It’s called a democracy, deal with it.
I’m looking forward to better times. I hope you are too.