Coronavirus: Threat Beyond Politics [For Political Discussions of CoV]

[Dumpling]

In the WEF article mentioned earlier there is an estimate that
a free chlorine residual of between 0.2 and 0.5 mg/L [[aka ppm)
would be sufficient to inactivate a coronavirus in wastewater.

This is QUITE low. Also, the tap water free chlorine residual right now
is 1.3 mg/L [[ppm). That should take out the coronavirus. However
there are plenty of pathogens that need quite a bit more chlorine
in order to be disinfected.

One reference recommended 1/3 cup of bleach in one gallon of
water for disinfection of coronavirus. [[overkill for coronavirus)
This is a nominal 1200 ppm solution. For general disinfecting
with bleach it is recommended to use 1/2 cup of bleach to a
gallon of water, which is a nominal 1800 ppm solution.

On the other hand parvovirus and ringworm are pretty durable.
For disinfecting those, various organizations recommend a 1 in 10
dilution of bleach. That is 1.6 cups of bleach in one gallon of water.
That is about 5700 ppm.

[Dumpling]

I looked up how many drops are in a cup: 4,732 drops per cup.

One cup of bleach in a gallon of water is a
nominal 1800 ppm x 2 = 3,600 ppm solution.

So then one can estimate how many ppm in a gallon
will result from adding a certain number of drops of
bleach. The conversion is 0.76 ppm per drop.

So twenty drops added to a gallon of water is like
adding 20 x 0.76 ppm = 15.2 ppm.

Eight drops = 8 x 0.76 ppm = 6.1 ppm free chlorine added.

How many drops to give 1.5 ppm? Right about 2 drops probably.

These are all purely estimates.

[Richard]

But then what determines what size a drop is?

Texas where everything is big,a drop could be shot glass size,California where things tend to be a bit more dainty,1/2 an eye dropper is a drop?

7-11 last night had 10 packs of dust masks for $1.99,I did not check but probably made in China.

At the SS office this morning,probably 50% were sneezing and coughing,Howard Hughes might have actually been on the right path considering the Petri dish we walk around in.

What did people use for soap and toilet paper before they decided to buy it all up?

[oladub]

Some flight restrictions have been put on passengers from China, Italy and Iran but why not Iceland which has a higher per capita corona virus rate than possibly anywhere?

Some random per capita infection rates as of this morning:

The U.S. has had 177 cases of corona virus with a population of 327M. Its per capita rate of infection is 1/1,847,458
Germany has had 482 cases of corona virus with a population of 82.79M. Its per capita rate of infection is 1/171,763
China has had 80,422 cases of corona virus with a population of 1.386B. Its per capita rate of infection is 1/17,234
Iceland has had 34 cases of corona virus with a population of 327 thousand. Its per capita rate of infection is 1/10,706

[Dumpling]

There is a description of a drop as a unit of measure in Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drop_[[unit)

Of course a drop is that little bit of liquid that coheres and drips
down out of a faucet or a dropper or a cloud. The volume of any
given drop as expressed in milliliters [[or any other unit of liquid
measure in current use) can vary.

But there does exist a unit of measure of fixed, known, convertible
volume that is known as a drop, as explained in Wikipedia.

It is exactly 0.05 mL.

[jcole]

Yes, I vetted this on the Surgeon General's Twitter page

[Dumpling]

There should be some emergency power - when thousands of lives are at stake - that the executive branch can draw upon to commandeer enough masks for medical personnel ahead of masks for the general public. Once that happens though, every effort should be made to make sure that the most effective masks are made available to all members of the general public. If it can be PROVED that wearing masks is ALWAYS ineffective in public and NEVER prevents infection and moreover promotes the spread of disease because sick people will go out wearing masks that don't work for their germs and snot, then that should be made clear as well.

[Richard]

Pssst,got a hook up of dime bags of Purell,look for the guy on the corner wearing a trench coat,make sure you hand over the cash inconspicuously.

For those not used to meeting shady characters on the street corner for scrupulous purchases,a dime bag equals $10,change not provided,no trades for bus passes.

Square is accepted for those who cling to the cashless theory but an additional $3 service fee applies,serious consequences for those who purchase and charge back.

[Johnnny5]

There should be some emergency power - when thousands of lives are at stake - that the executive branch can draw upon to commandeer enough masks for medical personnel ahead of masks for the general public.

There is. Under the Defense Production Act the President can force domestic manufacturers to sell and produce medical equipment for the U.S government before filling other orders. The issue is there are very few domestic manufacturers left for these masks, and even the ones left are often reliant on China and other Asian nations to supply the materials for production. The odds of the Chinese government allowing the export of these materials while they're facing this epidemic is probably next to nothing [[And I can't really blame them).

When this outbreak is over one of the silver linings is going to be a drastic reduction in our dependence on China and other foreign nations for essential goods and materials. President Trump has already been pushing hard on these issues prior to the outbreak with tariffs and trade restrictions. If this turns into a true crisis, post Corona19 I expect these efforts to increase substantially.

[jcole]

I managed to find 2 bottles of 99% isopropyl alcohol and a quart of Aloe Vera gel today. Going to make my own hand sanitizer. Things get tough and you me see me on that street corner in my London Fog Trench selling little bottles for $40 per pop

[Zacha341]

That's a factor. I'm a long-time eBayer [[mostly buyer) and as a I rule try to purchase from US sellers only. Sellers [[and those drop-shipping) from China are quoting shipping times as far out as May!

Forget about it! The plus of buying online is to have the item shipped in this lifetime, not the next! I would imagine Amazon will be affected to.

A looming issue is also our dependence on China for our medicines and pharmaceutical ingredients for our meds. This must be addressed quickly: China Rx: Exposing the Risks of America's Dependence on China for Medicine [[check out the reviews)...

When this outbreak is over one of the silver linings is going to be a drastic reduction in our dependence on China and other foreign nations for essential goods and materials...

[bust]

I'm all for domestic production of essential goods too.
And I'd happily pay more for them.
Just like I'd happily pay for higher quality items that are safe and last.
Of course not everything in China is low quality or unsafe, and neither is everything made here high quality and safe.
But as long as there are [[still) sensible regulations to provide reasonable assurances...
I'm also happy to keep our wealth at home instead of it flowing overseas.
And I don't mean just with the executives and stockholders.
At a minimum I'd rather we trade with our friends and reliable allies, and China isn't one of them.
I get the idea how by building trade dependencies you de-incentivize hostilities.
But I also see a giant trade imbalance and times like this prove how dependencies are bad for us when we're the one dependent.

By the way, our vital supply chain problems aren't just related to China. Have you seen this?
One of the brand names for paracetamol is Tylenol.

India limits medicine exports after supplies hit by coronavirus
Restrictions covering drugs including paracetamol prompt fears of global shortages
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ol-antibiotics

[Johnnny5]

By the way, our vital supply chain problems aren't just related to China. Have you seen this?
One of the brand names for paracetamol is Tylenol.

India limits medicine exports after supplies hit by coronavirus
Restrictions covering drugs including paracetamol prompt fears of global shortages
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ol-antibiotics

I did see that, and since I take about 2000mg of the stuff every day [[Thanks to a couple herniated discs and scoliosis) I stocked up a few weeks ago before the rush. Costco sells 1000 tablet double bottles of their Kirkland brand for $8, so for less than $40 I'm set for a couple years.

[oladub]

In the last 2.5 days the recorded cases of coronavirus in the U.S. has more than doubled to 401. We seem to be experiencing the same upward curve as China and the E.U.. Just the top eight E.U. countries now have 8,728 cases.

In this article, the author expects one million U.S. cases by the end of April. "By about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled" assuming only 10% of U.S patients require hospitalization. Consistent with Johnny5 and Zacha's previous comments, healthcare workers "would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day" with our present stockpile. Since we have made our health care dependent on China, "even when [[masks are) manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas... again, predominantly from China." "And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted."

Russia, Easter Europe and India still have low rates of infection along with S. America and Africa. Iceland might still be leading the world in per capita cases. I was thinking that the high incidence of American cv on the left coast had to do with its larger population of Chinese Americans who might be more apt to travel to China. However, contradicting that thought are the 1M Chinese colonialists now living it Africa also presumably traveling back and forth to China. It is surprising that Africa's rate is not higher. Perhaps, Africa has been protected because it has a more youthful population less prone to serious cv infection.

My statistics in the first paragraph are from the John Hopkins map which is updated twice daily and a good bookmark reference for the duration

[bust]

People who are infected aren't counted if they haven't been tested.
Latin America and Africa have been testing almost no one.
No surprise there are so few confirmed cases.
The US has been testing almost no one too, for that matter.
We still don't have the ability to test many, doctors have been instructed to test only as a last resort, most who request a test are turned away, and the millions of uninsured and underinsured have a strong financial incentive not to go to the doctor or request a test.
Now there's even an ICE crackdown with agents swarming "sanctuary cities" so illegal immigrants are definitely not going to the hospital if they can avoid it.
But at least now we're ramping up testing.
No surprise the numbers are quickly going up.

[Richard]

In Florida you do not go to the hospital for testing or if you have the virus,you go to the county or city clinics and it is no cost.

That was what part of the recent 8 billion that was approved was for.

It does not matter if you have insurance or not.

The one thing they still have not figured out yet is the part when you first get it and it takes up to 14 days before you know you have it,if it is contagious during that 14 day period.

[bust]

There's a lot more to the story.

Florida declared an emergency and you can now get tested at a county health department at no cost. Depending.

And since Monday tests can be processed at one of 3 Florida labs so results can be returned in 1-2 days instead of the 3-5 days it takes to get them processed at the CDC. It's unclear how many they can process per day.

But here's the rub, federal guidelines do NOT allow a test unless you meet very limited criteria. One of three combinations must apply:

1) You have a fever OR lower respiratory symptoms AND have been in recent close contact with a laboratory-confirmed infected patient;
2) You have a fever AND lower respiratory symptoms AND recently traveled to China, Korea, Italy, Iran, or Japan;
3) You have a fever AND acute lower respiratory symptoms requiring hospitalization AND all alternative diagnoses have been exhausted [[such as flu).

Very few are eligible for testing.

Despite 2 Florida deaths and a declared emergency, only 111 tests in Florida have been processed. 88 more are pending. 14 returned positive. 5 more tested positive outside of Florida and returned to the State.

Meanwhile, test kits in Florida, like everywhere in the US, are in short supply.

On Thursday Florida's governor appealed for more. He said the CDC would be sending them soon. "I know they have tens of thousands that will certainly be en route, but we don’t have them yet." They still don't. He said it could be "a big, big deal."

Anyone know who pays for the tests required to eliminate all the other possible diagnoses if you're in category 3 [[above)? For example, it's mandatory to eliminate the possibility of the flu. A man in Miami who was worried he had coronavirus was billed $3270 for a flu test. There will be all the other hospital bills too.

There were 28 million uninsured Americans in 2018, and rising. Millions more with coverage that isn't very good. This impacts how we can respond.

Florida isn’t widely testing for coronavirus. State blames CDC for lack of testing kits
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/hea...240855611.html

Coronavirus: Why doesn’t Florida have enough kits to test for it?
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health...-lack-of-kits/

With Test Kits in Short Supply, Health Officials Sound Alarms
Despite efforts by President Trump and others to reassure the public that tests are getting disseminated quickly, several states, doctors and patients complained that access was limited.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/h...ronavirus.html

[Richard]

While much of the world is focused on the coronavirus outbreak, influenza continues to take its toll in the United States, where an estimated 15 million people have been infected and 8,200 have died from the disease so far this flu season.

https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/...an-coronavirus

Priorities?

At this point the odds of dyeing from the flu far out surpasses the corona virus.

People are freaking out over what may happen and the response to it more then to what is actually happening.

It has become a politicalized weapon.

Its imported from China,it will not last that long,in the mean time while the markets are down people should be stocking up on actual stocks verses hand cleaner,make some profit off of the mass paranoia while you can.

Its the government,it’s a massive lumbering force not equipped to turn on a dime,it does not matter who is in charge.

[bust]

I hope you're right that this isn't as bad as the flu and won't last long. But that's not what the experts say. Nor is it reflected in how our government is behaving, with travel restrictions, quarantines, school closings, and cancelled events. Trump even canceled his trip to the CDC yesterday until it was confirmed a suspected coronavirus case there was just the flu. If you trust corporations more than you do the government, they're prohibiting non-essential travel and telling people to work from home.

I also hope you're right about the stock market, but the only ones making money lately have been the shorts, who've made a killing. I'll hold off buying stocks for now and play it safe.

Don't be so defeatist about government, though. They're not all so lumbering. It wouldn't be fair to talk about China-- I'd never want their system. But South Korea is a democracy and they've been able to test 70 times as many people as we have, even while we're more than 6 times their population.

The difference is the result of decisions. No one has been willing to explain why the CDC decided to create their own test kit instead of accepting the one the World Health Organization offered and shipped to 60 other countries in February. That wasn't our government's only mistake.

Let's hope they get it together, fast. The experts could be right.

[Dumpling]

The State of Washington has had cases of COVID-19 since January.
One of their experts estimates that their number of cases doubles
every six days [[given that quarantines and preventive measures
don't take place).

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...cientist-says/

It shouldn't get this bad because everyone there is aware and taking
measures to stop the epidemic but, the near term projection for
Washington State is:

today 3/8/2020: 300 cases [[low end estimate)
next Saturday 3/14/2020: 600 cases
the Friday after 3/20/2020: 1,200 cases
Thursday of the following week: 3/26/2020: 2,400 cases
April Fools Day 4/1/2020: 4,800 cases

[Dumpling]

This article compares COVID-19 with the seasonal flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

No children ages 0 to 9 have died from the new coronavirus, or if so, their mortality rate is very close to zero. However, the age groups from 10 to 40 have a mortality rate of 0.2%. This is actually twice the mortality rate of seasonal flu.

[Zacha341]

Italy in Coronavirus lockdown chaos...

[Richard]

This article compares COVID-19 with the seasonal flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

No children ages 0 to 9 have died from the new coronavirus, or if so, their mortality rate is very close to zero. However, the age groups from 10 to 40 have a mortality rate of 0.2%. This is actually twice the mortality rate of seasonal flu.

From that link

That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, dubbed COVID-19, because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause.

Based on that how can we chastise reaction to it ?

How exactly does one rapidly respond to the unknown?

We want the CDC and the medical community to have all the answers,but the reality is they do not,we are like a broken car,you have to figure out how to fix it before you can fix it.

I think what makes it even harder is we are different medically in this country and the unknown reactions based on that could be hard to nail down.

Go to some of the countries that are hard hit and hit up some of the open markets,Chinese restaurants do not get closed down regularly because they are an example of clean,that is what they are used to and their system is used to.

One of the hospitals that they built in 8 days to house the infected just collapsed killing even more.

A lot of countries penicillin is an OTC drug,in the military before you deploy to most countries you will get a slew of shots catered to the region you are going to.

The spread to multiple countries over their is fast,but they have open borders and small countries that equal one state in the US in size,here driving from one state to another here is like driving from one country to another there.

The big thing now is test kits.

How do you pump out test kits to use to test something that you do not have a firm grasp on?

It really does not matter at this point about the test kits outside of the we are doing something,once you are tested positive the cure is still an estimated year out.

I already posted,when the Chinese finally released the string our medical community with 12 hours already sent them back a serum for the first phase.

Personally I have no doubt that it will get worse before it gets better and it will continue and grow for at least another year.More lives will be lost.

The only silver lining right now is millions of Americans are stocking up with an emergency stash,that will save lives in the future that will far outpace the losses from this.

[Dumpling]

In a previous career I used to do medical diagnostics manufacturing.
This is kind of like having been in a galaxy far far away right now because it was before the advent of PCR technology. Even so there are still some insights that are still true to this day. One of them is that there are a wide variety of molecules that tests are designed to detect. One parameter of interest is stability. A stable molecule that is being detected makes for more reliable longer lasting test kits. The new coronavirus seems to be at the lower end of the stability spectrum.

If a test kit generates a high number of false positives, and apparently one kit was doing this, the government wouldn't want it to be used for screening of the general population because it might cause more reaction than necessary.

[Dumpling]

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...estimates.html

In this [[not yet peer reviewed) paper the researchers calculated that there were 619 cases of coronavirus COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess so there may have been false positives to get to the 700+ case count earlier. Seven cases so far have ended in the death of the patient.

The Diamond Princess rate has reached one death per 88 cases.