Amazon Looking for a new HQ - Detroit-Windsor Bid Rejected

[313WX]

Below is commentary on why a city should *NOT* want Amazon.

Frankly, I'll take these problems any day over the problems hybridy listed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1BS0FR

[hybridy]

I signed the gerrymandering petition at eastern market this weekend...and watched dozens of others. Misrepresentation and voter suppression is a national crisis.

[Don K]

I'm gonna guess Amazon has decided on a site already and is just using the process to extort bigger subsidies [[what else would you call demanding services such as police, fire, EMT, infrastructure, and schools without paying for them?), and it's not Detroit, or at least it already has a short list which doesn't include Detroit. Detroit's past as the world's metal basher and producer of cars for the U.S. is an honorable one, but it's in the past, and we can't get over that yet. I'm guessing "looks forward rather than back" is a selection criterion, and Detroit flunks that one entirely. Hell, even Pittsburgh has embraced its future in health care and education more than has Detroit. And Detroit's allergy to anything resembling a workable transit system [[Buses run approximately once an hour on Telegraph? Really?) is a symptom. Transit isn't just NYC, Philly, Boston, and Chicago anymore. The Twin Cities, Denver, Dallas, Seattle, and even Los Angeles have made major strides in transit in recent years.

We ought to admit Detroit's time in the first rank of American cities and metro areas is over, and that we are, at best, second or even third-rank. Now that doesn't mean life around here can't be pleasant. Look to New Orleans for an example of a city that once was major [[5th largest in 1850) that has settled into a role as a backwater of American culture. It just means we have to get over the idea of Detroit as a center of the American ideal. That died when millions of Americans decided Japanese or Korean or German cars better met their needs.

So maybe it would be cool to have 50,000 Amazonians working downtown [[but at what cost?). Get over it. Detroit's [[and Michigan's) retrograde values go way deeper than a narrow win in last year's election or a gerrymandered majority in the legislature. We're mired in the world of 50 or 60 years ago and can't escape.

[313WX]

So maybe it would be cool to have 50,000 Amazonians working downtown [[but at what cost?).

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Any sane should want to have Amazon's cost any day over the costs we're dealing with now.

[Richard]

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Any sane should want to have Amazon's cost any day over the costs we're dealing with now.

Adverage rent of a one bedroom apartment in Seattle is $2066.
Adverage rent of a one bedroom apartment in Detroit is $1060.

What percentage of renters in Detroit can afford a $1000 a month rent increase and if not where will they go?

DonK has a valid point when it comes to cause and effect,or be careful of what you wish for,sometimes to much to fast can be worse then slow and steady.

[MicrosoftFan]

Areas along I-75 near Newport have been growing rapidly in recent years, especially among parents who send their kids to St Charles and CC catholic schools. Brownstown is growing rapidly with new developments along the West Road corridor. And the West and Allen area is quickly becoming a center of shopping and entertainment. Heck, even Southland Mall is improving. Downriver is turning a new leaf, even if it's just intra-metro area migration, as blacks from Detroit move into inner ring suburbs, whites move further out.

[mtburb]

I-75 in Monroe County is kind of odd. It's not like you're in the middle of nowhere [[there are signs of life), yet it's still decidedly rural without contiguous development.

And then you have the state line acting as some sort of invisible wall preventing almost any sprawl from crossing it. Seriously, pull up an aerial view of the Toledo metro and look along the state line...the sprawl on the Ohio side in most areas abruptly turns rural on the Michigan side.

Areas along I-75 near Newport have been growing rapidly in recent years, especially among parents who send their kids to St Charles and CC catholic schools. Brownstown is growing rapidly with new developments along the West Road corridor. And the West and Allen area is quickly becoming a center of shopping and entertainment. Heck, even Southland Mall is improving. Downriver is turning a new leaf, even if it's just intra-metro area migration, as blacks from Detroit move into inner ring suburbs, whites move further out.

There's also the improvements in downtown Wyandotte as they [[try to) work hard to become the next Royal Oak...in fact a couple of established downtown Detroit-area businesses opened locations in Wyandotte that both unfortunately just recently failed.

[MicrosoftFan]

And then you have the state line acting as some sort of invisible wall preventing almost any sprawl from crossing it. Seriously, pull up an aerial view of the Toledo metro and look along the state line...the sprawl on the Ohio side in most areas abruptly turns rural on the Michigan side.



There's also the improvements in downtown Wyandotte as they [[try to) work hard to become the next Royal Oak...in fact a couple of established downtown Detroit-area businesses opened locations in Wyandotte that both unfortunately just recently failed.

Downtown Wyandotte has always been the only viable downtown in Downriver. Thanks to their strong planning committee and events like third friday they bring in people from all around Downriver who don’t want to drive all the way to Detroit. In fact, once or twice a month we head down to Captains for dinner and walk over to Yogurttown for dessert.

[313WX]

Adverage rent of a one bedroom apartment in Seattle is $2066.
Adverage rent of a one bedroom apartment in Detroit is $1060.

What percentage of renters in Detroit can afford a $1000 a month rent increase and if not where will they go?

DonK has a valid point when it comes to cause and effect,or be careful of what you wish for,sometimes to much to fast can be worse then slow and steady.

The part of that you're missing is that it'll also come with wage inflation, as other companies in Michigan will be forced to increase the salaries they offer to compete with Amazon for talent. The other extreme is what Michigan's facing now, in that there are so few good jobs being created that employers feel they can get away with relatively low pay, which is worse if you want to attract and keep talent.

Furthermore, the situation in Seattle has its own unique circumstances exacerbating the problem. With it being blocked in by the mountains to its east and the ocean, there's not much land for developers to build on [[which limits the supply of real estate). Michigan, on the other hand, has a ton of unobstructured land to build on, including in Detroit proper. It's just a matter of there being demand for developers to build on it. It will be a very long time before Detroit runs out of space like Seattle.

A better comparison to Detroit, if we land Amazon, would be Atlanta or Dallas. They're both are still relatively affordable for major cities despite their booming economy and population.

[313WX]

To add, in growing and healthy cities, it's perfectly normal for people to move out and people to move in, as people are mobile and capable of adapting to changing environments by their nature.

If people who can't afford the higher rents / housing values are forced to move, that would be unfortunate and they'll just have to relocate to a place that's less expensive. But on the flip side, they would likely be replaced with people who have a lot more money to spend and contribute to the government.

[Canadian Visitor]

To add, in growing and healthy cities, it's perfectly normal for people to move out and people to move in, as people are mobile and capable of adapting to changing environments by their nature.

If people who can't afford the higher rents / housing values are forced to move, that would be unfortunate and they'll just have to relocate to a place that's less expensive. But on the flip side, they would likely be replaced with people who have a lot more money to spend and contribute to the government.

Perhaps we could summarize the back and forth by simply saying there are consequences good and bad, for almost every action.

When taken together the 'good' is rarely as good as it first seems; the bad is not without its advantages.

The key is being able to get a robust picture of the effects and understand what the real net benefit might be.

I am not arguing against the value of adding an HQ like Amazon, but merely pointing out there are a wide range of effects.

***

One thing I often see in discussions such as this is discussion of GDP growth, which often takes the gross number without adjusting it for inflation and population growth.

That's the sort of distinction that's important.

If the pie is 10% bigger, but there are 10% more people, everyone's piece is still the same size.

If the cost of making the pie bigger means each slice costs more; then everyone actually fell behind.

Again, I'm not suggesting this would be the case in this particular situation.

Rather that its important to weigh things out thoughtfully and not over-sell the benefit.

The biggest gains from an HQ are either in corporate income tax payable [[make sure you know which level of government is cashing that cheque); and personal income tax payable from job growth.

Many of the expenses from growth invariably fall on local governments.

While one may gain some pretty streetscapes or a new or improved local park, the cost of adding to or rebuilding highways, schools or transit isn't small.

Detroit has an advantage here in terms of under-utilized infrastructure. But much of it also needs considerable investment.

Getting an HQ is great, but making sure the benefits flow to those that bear the cost is equally important.

[Zads07]

Dan Gilbert said in his announcement today when talking about the investments in the Book, One Campus Martius, Hudson's and Monroe Block that, "Detroit is a legit contender to win over Amazon."

[ParisianLesion]

Dan Gilbert said in his announcement today when talking about the investments in the Book, One Campus Martius, Hudson's and Monroe Block that, "Detroit is a legit contender to win over Amazon."

Here's an interesting, but perhaps obvious thought:

There is not another SINGLE individual in the entire country that stands to gain more if Amazon were to locate to their city than Dan Gilbert.

Am I wrong?

[313WX]

Here's an interesting, but perhaps obvious thought:

There is not another SINGLE individual in the entire country that stands to gain more if Amazon were to locate to their city than Dan Gilbert.

Am I wrong?

You're not wrong.

[wolverine]

It may shock you, Bham1982, but I was going to post something similar.

Lot of very capable cities might be looking at a 5 - 8% chance simply because they meet the requirements but don't stand out.

Mayors are doing it because they don't want to be the leader that failed to even try. It's kind of like any job / contract proposal or even a job interview. Sometimes the long-shot chances end up working out

But to be practical, there's only about 4-5 cities that could realistically support every requirement unless a lot of categories simply don't matter. I still think the most important requirement will be to have 500,000+ sf of available space NOW, and to have the available professional talent. This...more important than transit or even subsidies. If Detroit actually wants to win this, the HQ should commence construction now so that it's ready by 2019. Gilbert needs to get these proposals with their tiresome revisions actually built. Chicago already has two prospective options approved or under construction now, whether amazon locates there or not

Under construction
https://www.google.com/amp/s/chicago...ice-renderings

Approved
http://www.lincolnyards.com

[iheartthed]

But to be practical, there's only about 4-5 cities that could realistically support every requirement unless a lot of categories simply don't matter.

I don't think there is really any city that checks all boxes, which is why all cities bidding will have to read tea leaves on what Amazon actually wants.

[313WX]

I don't think there is really any city that checks all boxes, which is why all cities bidding will have to read tea leaves on what Amazon actually wants.

Out of all of the cities competing, I would say Atlanta comes the closest to meeting their requirements.

The problem with Boston, Denver Chicago and even Philadelphia to a lesser extent is the cost of living. Reports suggest a significant number of employees are sick of the high COL in Seattle and are seeking an area where the pace is slower and their money goes further.

Meanwhile, Austin doesn't have the big city infrastructure to handle such a large infusion of people and Dallas doesn't have much in the way of heavy rail transit infrastructure [[yet).

[iheartthed]

Out of all of the cities competing, I would say Atlanta comes the closest to meeting their requirements.

The problem with Boston, Denver Chicago and even Philadelphia to a lesser extent is the cost of living. Reports suggest a significant number of employees are sick of the high COL in Seattle and are seeking an area where the pace is slower and their money goes further.

Meanwhile, Austin doesn't have the big city infrastructure to handle such a large infusion of people and Dallas doesn't have much in the way of heavy rail transit infrastructure [[yet).

I respectfully disagree that Atlanta is a front runner. I think Detroit has a better chance. And if it were to go to a large sun belt city then I think it would be Dallas over Atlanta.

I believe Philadelphia is the city that comes closest to meeting all points, and the cost of living isn't really that high. It's a relative bargain to other coastal cities. Being roughly 100 miles from NYC and DC would also help.

If they weigh having access to foreign-born talent heavily then I think Toronto is the front runner in that case. But Detroit would be extremely competitive in that scenario with a joint proposal that includes Windsor.

[313WX]

If they weigh having access to foreign-born talent heavily then I think Toronto is the front runner in that case. But Detroit would be extremely competitive in that scenario with a joint proposal that includes Windsor.

The prospect of a dual-nation HQ could definitely end up being a Trump card for Detroit.

[Richard]

It would double if not triple the value of his low hanging fruit overnight.

But everybody else also.

[rex]

I dont think Detroit is in the running for Amazons headquarters. I would be very surprised if they ended up here

[SammyS]

Here's an interesting, but perhaps obvious thought:

There is not another SINGLE individual in the entire country that stands to gain more if Amazon were to locate to their city than Dan Gilbert.

Am I wrong?

Anyone with any property, business etc will likely wake up plenty richer than when they went to bed.

[ParisianLesion]

Anyone with any property, business etc will likely wake up plenty richer than when they went to bed.

Well no kidding. The point of my statement being that no one, whether in Detroit or anywhere else, has anywhere near the real estate holdings, most of which picked up in recent years at bargain prices, that DG has. He literally stands to make many hundreds of millions at minimal risk and effort. Thought that might stimulate some thoughts of back room dealings to enhance Detroit's chances of success but apparently not...

[Gistok]

The State of Michigan office building in Detroit known as Cadillac Place [[former GM HQ) has 1.4 million square feet. The 1998 signed 20 year lease expires next year, where the state can buy the building for $1. That is a magnificent building, and in great condition. The state could find offices elsewhere... sell it to Amazon for $1.

Peter Cushing's group which owns the Fisher and Albert Kahn Building.... could offer up [[sell/lease) the use of those 2 buildings... that plus Cadillac Place adds up to 2 million square ft. alone. Add in New Center One Building and future build space nearby, and Amazon could have an amazing campus... near the Amtrak Station, the Q-Line, and 3 freeways just blocks from the complex.

Who says Detroit can't be competitive? We may be a long shot at getting this.... but at least we can offer up some real competition... especially when it comes to finding contiguous space.

[313WX]

The State of Michigan office building in Detroit known as Cadillac Place [[former GM HQ) has 1.4 million square feet. The 1998 signed 20 year lease expires next year, where the state can buy the building for $1. That is a magnificent building, and in great condition. The state could find offices elsewhere... sell it to Amazon for $1.

Peter Cushing's group which owns the Fisher and Albert Kahn Building.... could offer up [[sell/lease) the use of those 2 buildings... that plus Cadillac Place adds up to 2 million square ft. alone. Add in New Center One Building and future build space nearby, and Amazon could have an amazing campus... near the Amtrak Station, the Q-Line, and 3 freeways just blocks from the complex.

Who says Detroit can't be competitive? We may be a long shot at getting this.... but at least we can offer up some real competition... especially when it comes to finding contiguous space.

That would definitely help the New Center Area to take off.