Robots will kill the unions

[Wesley Mouch]

The big question is; how long before the government is forced to give an allowance to a citizen based on nothing more than their existence, or there is a peasant revolt as owners grow wealthier and wealthier with fewer and fewer workers.

It's begun already. The lagging employment numbers aren't because so many people now are lazy. It's because their choices are a menial job that wont pay the bills, or government assistance. In the old days these people would work on the line, dig ditches, or be gladiators for Caesar because those were the best options available. Today the best option is to sit on government assistance for as long as possible. And being that I don't see us going back to the human dominated assembly line any time soon, let alone the Colosseum, allowance it will be!

I'd be open to UBI if, 1) the amount were near subsistence, 2) funded by elimination of other social programs, 3) not means tested. Universal means universal. You can tax it back [[by changes to std. deduction, for example.

This is more likely to kill unions than robots. Robots will probably strengthen unions, as workers feel more threatened and Democrats go from card check to guaranteed universal union membership from Sanders 2020.

[archfan]

Bye bye Unions - you're not needed in manufacturing anymore for USA

Perhaps not. But the conditions that engendered unions - increasing income inequality, decreasing real income, decreasing job security - are occurring again. If the trends continue, unions or something similar may make sense to working people at some point.

[Wesley Mouch]

Perhaps not. But the conditions that engendered unions - increasing income inequality, decreasing real income, decreasing job security - are occurring again. If the trends continue, unions or something similar may make sense to working people at some point.

Yes. The 'something similar' of today that worries me most is the anti-trade and anti-capitalist politics of today. Politicians following Trump [[including Hillary) can't run fast enough from trade deals today. And that'll hurt working people as prices go up, and markets for their manufacturing go down.

The public is fed up with being ignored. And yet politicians feed more garbage like minimum wage increases to satisfy the public need for blood, but actually harm the poor.

I don't see unionism breaking free of its cronyist tradition of the last 50 years. They really don't want to help the working poor -- they just want higher wages and higher barriers to competition. There is a danger from unions such as HERE where they actually do have some principles and are following them. Outside of the public sector, I think people realize unions are only helpful in declining industries where they can milk employers as the become irrelevant [[think newspaper unions). In progressive areas, I don't see them gaining ground. People know that they'll just drive the employers away and take the remaining jobs for their kids with them.

[emu steve]

Bye bye Unions - you're not needed in manufacturing anymore for USA

Be careful there.

Robots and computers have gotten rid of many, many jobs, some unionized and others not.

I remember 'the good ole days' where I'd go to a travel agent to plan a trip [[to Vegas) and then go to a tax preparer to do my taxes [[etc.).

The last twenty years both have been replaced by the Internet and TurboTax.

And to have spending money in Vegas I go to an ATM machine instead of seeing my favorite bank clerk for traveler's checks.

And also to pay for this trip to Vegas instead of mailing a check to the bank I do it electronically and yes, the mail man doesn't need to deliver my monthly statement because I get it electronically.

And to have memories of this trip, I'd print out beautiful prints I took using a color printer and high quality paper.

And, yes, when I come to a Tigers game, I will buy my tickets electronically, no need to deal with a human, even those sweet ticket sellers at stadiums. And yes, the Tigers' shirt I'll wear was bought online.

And at work, never needed a clerk-typist for decades.

I did need a person last week to cut my backyard tree, though, and launder my shirts.

There is still hope for labor, I guess...

[O3H]

The reality of manufacturing is exactly why Detroit cannot rely on it solely for the purpose of rebuilding the city. People don't buy new cars every 2 years, even if they are UAW workers getting some overtime here and there.

[emu steve]

The reality of manufacturing is exactly why Detroit cannot rely on it solely for the purpose of rebuilding the city. People don't buy new cars every 2 years, even if they are UAW workers getting some overtime here and there.

Now you speak the truth.

In the 'good' ole days, cars didn't last long. They fell apart or rusted and fell apart. The quality, at least compared to today's quality, was poor.

I should get someone's goat with this statement:

One of the few pure growth industries in the U.S. has been building sports stadiums and arenas.

That is still a very, very labor intensive endeavor.

But as our pols [[and others, such as public policy analysts) say if we do more infrastructure, more health care, etc. we will create more employment in different occupations other than the old ones like car manufacturing, coal mining, etc.

Give someone a Medicaid card and they ain't going to China to get health care. They will produce work for local doctors, nurses, receptionists, etc.

Building the QLine cars was done in Pa. The QLine track work was done in Detroit [[obviously) mostly by Detroiters or S.E. MI laborers.

So there are MANY industries we can grow such as construction, health care, etc.

[Tig3rzhark]

Now you speak the truth.

In the 'good' ole days, cars didn't last long. They fell apart or rusted and fell apart. The quality, at least compared to today's quality, was poor.

I should get someone's goat with this statement:

One of the few pure growth industries in the U.S. has been building sports stadiums and arenas.

That is still a very, very labor intensive endeavor.

But as our pols [[and others, such as public policy analysts) say if we do more infrastructure, more health care, etc. we will create more employment in different occupations other than the old ones like car manufacturing, coal mining, etc.

Give someone a Medicaid card and they ain't going to China to get health care. They will produce work for local doctors, nurses, receptionists, etc.

Building the QLine cars was done in Pa. The QLine track work was done in Detroit [[obviously) mostly by Detroiters or S.E. MI laborers.

So there are MANY industries we can grow such as construction, health care, etc.

There is still hope that robots and AI won't take all of the jobs.

Since our current generation is very dependent on computers, automatic devices and the like.

Of course, the dominant industry that is here that we're well know for, unfortunately, is cars. Until Detroit changes what it's mainly known for, that is all that we will be known for.

We're in an "adapt or die" situation. It's time for Detroit to adapt.

[emu steve]

I AGREE with all of the comments that Detroit needs to broaden its commercial and employment bases. But how?

I believe that there are a number of new growth industries which could be nurtured but I'm not sure I see them coming to Detroit.

E.g., solar and renewables seem to be going to other parts of the country. Musk and his Nevada factory being example. Make his batteries out west and sell them to folks in the sun belt. [[and I'm not sure renewables will ever be THAT big).

E.g., fracking but I don't see that being big in MI. I have no idea what reserves are in MI and how profitable to get them.

When I think 'new industries' and 'Midwest' I have trouble completing the sentence.

[Jimaz]

A couple related short videos:

• The last job on Earth: imagining a fully automated world | Guardian Animations
• How To Make A Living When Robots Take Our Jobs

[canuck]

I AGREE with all of the comments that Detroit needs to broaden its commercial and employment bases. But how?

I believe that there are a number of new growth industries which could be nurtured but I'm not sure I see them coming to Detroit.

E.g., solar and renewables seem to be going to other parts of the country. Musk and his Nevada factory being example. Make his batteries out west and sell them to folks in the sun belt. [[and I'm not sure renewables will ever be THAT big).

E.g., fracking but I don't see that being big in MI. I have no idea what reserves are in MI and how profitable to get them.

When I think 'new industries' and 'Midwest' I have trouble completing the sentence.

Panasonic/Tesla's new battery factory will be completed in Buffalo, maybe not the Midwest, but a relative stone's throw from da "D". By far the largest such facility in the US.

[emu steve]

Panasonic/Tesla's new battery factory will be completed in Buffalo, maybe not the Midwest, but a relative stone's throw from da "D". By far the largest such facility in the US.

Is that correct?

According to this article, batteries will be in Nevada and solar panels in Buffalo.

Correct?

Is there something I'm missing?

http://buffalonews.com/2017/01/06/tesla-one-gigafactory-another

That said, what I don't understand is why solar panels in Buffalo?

I understand the battery factory in Reno because of the Tesla factory in California.

What is it about Buffalo which makes it better site than say Reno or California to produce solar panels??? Was it a state initiative? Is the University of Buffalo involved?

[Honky Tonk]

Is there something I'm missing?

[[now be nice........)

[canuck]

Is that correct?

According to this article, batteries will be in Nevada and solar panels in Buffalo.

Correct?

Is there something I'm missing?

http://buffalonews.com/2017/01/06/tesla-one-gigafactory-another

That said, what I don't understand is why solar panels in Buffalo?

I understand the battery factory in Reno because of the Tesla factory in California.

What is it about Buffalo which makes it better site than say Reno or California to produce solar panels??? Was it a state initiative? Is the University of Buffalo involved?

The state had a lot to do with it. In the article I read, they mention 3/4 billion dollars of incentives from N.Y. State. I think Buffalo and Rochester are getting a lot of overdue attention from Albany now. In this info page from Tesla, they talk of implementing battery for EV's in the future at the Buffalo Gigafactory.

https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/blog/tes...-in-buffalo-ny

[3WC]

Tesla. A long time friend [[who lives in So. CA) bought a Tesla S a couple of years ago. $140,000. 750+ h.p with one motor per rear wheel and one motor for the front two. Screaming fast. 236 mile range more or less. But it's very small and uncomfortable. He's been trying to sell it for a year at a big discount with no takers. [[He won't miss any meals if he has to keep it.)

Tesla's mkt cap is now greater than Ford's. [[A fool and his money are soon parted.)

I view Tesla as another iteration of the Tulip Mania of the early 1600's in Holland. We know how that turned out.

[emu steve]

Have to be careful when discussion Tesla. It is both an automotive company, but really a solar industry company [[through their Solar City).

In 10 or 20 years, they might be known more for what they will be doing in solar energy with their solar cells, batteries, etc. than cars. We'll see what the $35K vehicle is like and how it sells.

Solar is one area where we could get ahead of the Chinese or they clean our clocks.

We are looking at an industry [[coal) which has been dying for decades being replaced by natural gas and renewables and our pols [[won't mention names) are shunning renewables for electoral votes in a few states... IMO, terrible mistake.

If the Creator gives solar energy which will be with us until the end of time, why are we still digging for coal or exploring oil in the middle east [[they have a finite supply).

If God gives a gift, take it and say, "Thank you."

This is 2017 and maybe in decades ahead, the world's population will hit say 10B. The world needs to feed them, produce energy for them, etc. We can't use 1950 technologies and methods.

[ndavies]

A Forbes 4 part article on Robot tech in Michigan, I haven't had chance to read them yet.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hilaryb.../#6162dea933a6

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hilaryb.../#66b656d545a6

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hilaryb.../#183f66771727

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hilaryb.../#19cb71147188

[3WC]

emu steve, you are correct that Tesla is also a battery company as a result of the merger of the Musk controlled companies, Solar City and Tesla [[both huge money losers by the way.) The viability of electricity as an automotive fuel source is dependent upon improved batteries.

[[By the way, how do you folks on the Forum who pay federal income taxes feel about paying $7500 of the costs of my rich friend's Tesla S?)

Also, although it's true that God gave us solar energy, He/She also gave us all other forms of energy. As in all other things in life, energy sources compete with each other with respect to the various costs involved and reliability, transmission and storage costs. Solar photovoltaic and solar thermal energy are the second and third most expensive energy sources, way behind offshore wind generation.

Nuclear energy is by far the least expensive at 2.20 cents per kwh, behind petroleum at 21.55 cents. "Petroleum" doesn't include nat gas, as it should.

Why aren't we 85% nuclear as is France?

[emu steve]

I'm an 'all of the above' type when it comes to energy.

I'm not sure of the statistics on the aggregate growth in energy usage in the U.S., but I'd assume A GOAL could be to keep fossil fuel usage constant or reduced even though population increases.

E.g., do we want gasoline consumption to increase say 5% a year because of the changing mix of vehicles [[pronounced movement toward larger vehicles)?

Just curious: What are the biggest 'drivers' [[not like in vehicles) of the growth of fossil fuels in the U.S.? It doesn't appear to be manufacturing.

Is it heating and electric for a growing population?

[emu steve]

BTW, I always ASSUMED that growing production of renewables will keep the local electricity company from having to build more coal power plants and allow them to close down some old ones.

In other words, 'do more with less' [[to use that old expression).

[3WC]

emu steve, I don't have at hand the stats you're interested in. I was in the oil and gas production business [[and nat gas liquids) for 29 years, 6 years in MI and the rest in TX until I sold out in late 2012. I used to have all those stats at my fingertips.

I do know that nat gas production will increased as mare electric cars are manufactured. That electricity wull be generated primarily by the current generators, coal, nat gas etc. Nat gas generation will continue to increase.

Keep in mind that approximately one-half of every bbl of oil in converted to gasoline and the other half to petrochemicals of many kinds, including fertilizer.

Wind and solar energy is becoming more common in MI but ONLY because its use is mandated by state law. Ridiculous. That energy is more expensive than conventionally generated energy and we are paying for it. [[The state and the utilities make a great effort to disguise the true costs by that's only because they've become proficient in financial engineering.) If it was so profitable and cost efficient the state wouldn't have to mandate its use. They all think we're dummies.

A big business in MI is underground gas storage. Gas is transported by pipeline all summer from the Gulf Coast to underground storage facilities in MI where it is drawn down in winter; without such storage nat gas could never supply the energy needs in winter. The gas is stored in depleted oil and gas fields. Many states in the northern states don't have such storage facilities.

[[Crude oil is a great fertilizer. Frequently in TX we had minor pipeline leaks between the wells and the storage tank batteries. The spilled oil always killed a few bushels of growing wheat. The next year though, each small oil spill area was easily identifiable because the new wheat in the area of the previous spill was greener and taller than the surrounding wheat unaffected the year before. If crude as fuel decreases it is assumed more and more will be turned into fertilizers and other petrochemicals.)

[O3H]

I hear robots can build electric cars -

[Bill07073]

WILL ROBOTS TAKE MY JOB?ABOUT



https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/?ct=...Jun-5-10-2017)

[O3H]

Robots definitely don't pay union dues,
or keep union presidents employed with high salaries.

https://www.unionfacts.com/employees...d_Auto_Workers

[Wesley Mouch]

Robots definitely don't pay union dues,
or keep union presidents employed with high salaries.

https://www.unionfacts.com/employees...d_Auto_Workers

I expect unions to pay their people very well. [[Its always a sunny day when union staff go on strike against their own union for oppressive working conditions, isn't it?)

Hard to judge pay without context, but what I found interesting was that the typical benefits cost was around 17% of base. That seems very low. How do they pay for social security, medicare, UI, health & pension. Its far less than the contracts they obtain, it seems.

Mr. Trull's benefits are 43% of his wages. Hmmm.

[Henry Whalley]

Robots being developed by Boston Dynamics will replace soldiers too. That’s arguably a mixed blessing.