Quote Originally Posted by erikd View Post
I think we may be arguing different points here...

For the sake of argument, let's assume that the difference in crime rates between NYC and Detroit/Chicago are due to ethnic make up.
I'm not making such an assumption. I'm saying that the dramatic demographic changes in NYC over the last few decades, especially the changes in the black population, have played a role in massive crime decreases in NYC's black neighborhoods. Chicago and Detroit haven't had similar ethnic changes, and those neighborhoods continue to have extremely high homicide rates.

Immigrants tend to have much lower homicide rates than native-born Americans. Among blacks the gap is especially noticeable, and I think it's reasonable to assume that this has played some role in the NYC homicide declines.

Of course there are many other reasons- NYC has more gentrification, probably more effective policing, probably less citizen distrust of policing, and is a significantly wealthier city with greater resources to tackle urban violence.

All cities had decreases in murder rate in the 1990's and 2000's, of course. Even if there were no demographic change, NYC would have seen declines in homicides simply because the crack scourge waned. This happened in Chicago and Detroit too. But I think NYC's outlier homicide/crime status is partly due to its outlier demographic status.