Metro Detroit-Windsor 2017 Predictions

[Zads07]

Dan Gilbert just claimed there will be 10-15 buildings over 25 stories constructed downtown in the next 5-7 years. Seems unlikely when we have been waiting about 7 years now for nothing but hype to happen with the Hudson site.

Well there was the Great Recession..........and with the amount of influx of workers and companies into the city since 2010, it's not hard to believe that this is possible.

[Bham1982]

Dan Gilbert just claimed there will be 10-15 buildings over 25 stories constructed downtown in the next 5-7 years. Seems unlikely when we have been waiting about 7 years now for nothing but hype to happen with the Hudson site.

If there is one such building constructed downtown in the next 5-7 years, I will be impressed.

Downtown has been "booming" supposedly for 15+ years, and the only such construction was a schlocky casino tower.

Compuware made its big announcement to move downtown back in 2000, so I think we've had plenty of time to see new construction, if there were such demand.

[Bham1982]

And Miami, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Philadelphia

No. None of these cities have similar housing typologies as Manhattan.

Only Manhattan has such luxury towers going up everywhere. Miami has some, but far fewer, and not primarily downtown, not all luxury, and not really urban-styled. The other cities might have one really tall residential building u/c, at most.

Just for fun, you should go shopping for a mid-to-high end residence in the CBD and surrounding hot nabes. You'd come away with a better understanding of the level of demand. And plan to offer more than ask with cash.

Well why don't you show us all these secret fancy condo units downtown? None exist in Zillow, Trulia, or any of the RE aggregator websites. Where are they? Show us even one, please. One new luxury condo unit, in a new construction building.

In fact, the entire city of Detroit has only a few dozen listings for any type of residential RE over 300k.

And 300k is a VERY low bar for "luxury" RE. Even 600k is a low bar. To profitably build a 60 floor tower absent subsidies you would need to be charging something like $1,000 a foot, meaning a 1,000 square foot apartment would cost around $1 million. Construction costs are enormous once you get to those types of heights, since elevator banks take up much of the floorspace.

[dtowncitylover]

No. None of these cities have similar housing typologies as Manhattan.

Only Manhattan has such luxury towers going up everywhere. Miami has some, but far fewer, and not primarily downtown, not all luxury, and not really urban-styled. The other cities might have one really tall residential building u/c, at most.

Toronto, Vancouver...

[Towne Cluber]

No. None of these cities have similar housing typologies as Manhattan.

Only Manhattan has such luxury towers going up everywhere. Miami has some, but far fewer, and not primarily downtown, not all luxury, and not really urban-styled. The other cities might have one really tall residential building u/c, at most..

Boston has seen a residential tower building boom since 2010. There are several new high rise, luxury residential towers that have recently been completed, are under construction now, and/or are slated to start construction this year.

[ParisianLesion]

No. None of these cities have similar housing typologies as Manhattan.

Only Manhattan has such luxury towers going up everywhere. Miami has some, but far fewer, and not primarily downtown, not all luxury, and not really urban-styled. The other cities might have one really tall residential building u/c, at most.



Well why don't you show us all these secret fancy condo units downtown? None exist in Zillow, Trulia, or any of the RE aggregator websites. Where are they? Show us even one, please. One new luxury condo unit, in a new construction building.

In fact, the entire city of Detroit has only a few dozen listings for any type of residential RE over 300k.

And 300k is a VERY low bar for "luxury" RE. Even 600k is a low bar. To profitably build a 60 floor tower absent subsidies you would need to be charging something like $1,000 a foot, meaning a 1,000 square foot apartment would cost around $1 million. Construction costs are enormous once you get to those types of heights, since elevator banks take up much of the floorspace.

It's always fun to watch you redefine your original statement so that you're no longer blatantly wrong

[Rock N Rye]

I will be happy if he finally finishes something on the Hudson site in 5-7 years at this rate. Seems like its constantly getting delayed and is supposed to take over 3 years to build.

[Junjie]

And Miami, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Philadelphia

Just for fun, you should go shopping for a mid-to-high end residence in the CBD and surrounding hot nabes. You'd come away with a better understanding of the level of demand. And plan to offer more than ask with cash.

Just to be clear, the new tallest building in Philly is currently under construction, and it's exactly 60 stories. That's the only building of that height going up here. And that's not for lack of construction or demand... here's a list of 25 other high rises [[seems to be basically 15+ stories) under construction now in Philadelphia. [[Can you imagine if Detroit had 25 buildings that size going up right now? That's what an actual "boom" or "comeback" would look like, and why some of us perceive the talk about development in Detroit as overheated.)

I'm not saying that means it's impossible Dan Gilbert will build a 60-floor tower, but doing so isn't exactly commonplace around the country. I think assuming it will be that tall is pretty premature.

One last point on the positive side - as most of us know he has said it will combine office, a "civic component," and residential. So between all of those uses we might get significant height at Hudson's without having to sell out 50 floors worth of condos or whatever, especially if there's as much demand for office space as Gilbert seems to think. To connect back to the thread title: I think we will find out this year.

[Lowell]

Q-line launch results in world's first self-driving car and street railway collision.

[mtburb]

Going back to where I started this thread:

1. Q-Line opens and reports surprisingly high ridership.
2. [[Since I failed on this last year) Eastland closes.
3. Red Wings and Pistons finish their final seasons in their respective arenas with playoff appearances but get eliminated in the first round.
4. Lions improve on their 2016 record and win the NFC North and a first-week bye in the 2017 playoffs. This comes as a shocker to thousands of fans who thought they would never achieve that in their lifetimes.
5. Tigers continue improving but again fail to make the playoffs for the third straight season.
6. Wayne County, Dan Gilbert or whoever owns it now is forced to resume work on the jail site.
7. The Metro Airport outlet mall plan is cancelled.
8. Duggan gets reelected for a second term.
9. Taylor continues attracting major regional and national chains to settle in along Eureka Road as Menard's finally begins construction.
10. A skyscraper taller than the RenCen is announced for the Hudson Block.

...here's if they actually happened or not this year.

1. The Q-Line opened on May 12th and indeed has had high ridership levels.
2. Once again, never happened, but it could soon finally happen since it no longer has Macy's or Target to sustain it.
3. I got both totally wrong, neither reached the playoffs at all, Red Wings for the first time since 1990-before some of you were even born!
4. Lions did not win the NFC North thanks to controversial loses in key games against teams with winning records, in fact, thanks to their loss to the Bengals, they're out of the playoffs.
5. Another one I was right on, they in fact finished dead last in all of baseball.
6. I was wrong on this one too, Gilbert has come up with new developments that will replace the Fail Jail.
7. Yet another one I got correct, early into 2017 it was officially cancelled.
8. Yet again, I was correct on this one.
9. Yet yet again, one I was correct on.
10. And the fourth straight one I got correct on.

About to post a new 2018 predictions thread...