Detroit one of America's most "compact" cities; Warren one of most "sprawling"

[Hermod]

Obviously, in regards to Warren, you're referring to the Mound & Chicago area. However, by 1950, there was already an alternate "downtown" in Warren - if you will - along Van Dyke up to 9 Mile, complete with a movie theatre. It was an old school, East Dearborn-style development, except cheaper and scaled down a bit.

I was under the impression that the area along Van Dyke up to 9 Mile was beautiful, downtown Center Line.

[313WX]

Because we're backwards. You can try to spin how you want, but we're shrinking for a reason.

We're backwards.

That's true as well.

[Bham1982]

I was under the impression that the area along Van Dyke up to 9 Mile was beautiful, downtown Center Line.

Now Van Dyke & 9 looks as bad as Van Dyke & 7. Maybe worse, at least from the street.

[nain rouge]

I was under the impression that the area along Van Dyke up to 9 Mile was beautiful, downtown Center Line.

Haha, Center Line doesn't start until about 9 1/2. It used to have somewhat of a downtown, too, but it's been thoroughly "strip mallified" over the years.

[nain rouge]

• Population – Southeast Michigan gained 4,540 people last year, which is the second consecutive year of population growth after a decade of population decline. Current population is about 6,500 more that the 2010 Census. It is 1.1 percent higher than SEMCOG’s 2040 forecast for 2013.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe SEMCOG's July 2013 estimates for Southeast Michigan include Monroe, Washtenaw, and St. Clair counties, and exclude Lapeer County. If that's the case, it's hardly representable and is probably piggybacking off the continued momentum of Ann Arbor. According to Wikipedia, the growth within Metro Detroit is still negative, showing a continued loss from 2010 to 2013.

[Bham1982]

[/LIST]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe SEMCOG's July 2013 estimates for Southeast Michigan include Monroe, Washtenaw, and St. Clair counties, and exclude Lapeer County. If that's the case, it's hardly representable and is probably piggybacking off the continued momentum of Ann Arbor. According to Wikipedia, the growth within Metro Detroit is still negative, showing a continued loss from 2010 to 2013.

It isn't SEMCOG data, it's the official Census data. Oakland and Macomb Counties have some of the highest population growth in the state.

The overall MSA is barely growing, though because of one county- Wayne. The overall CSA is barely growing because of two counties- Wayne& Gennesse. All other SE MI counties are growing or stable.

[nain rouge]

It was Census data, but I believe SEMCOG was reporting it using its own parameters. I don't believe the Census recognizes "Southeast Michigan" as a specific Census area. Also, Oakland and Macomb may have some of the highest population growth rates in the state, but how much of it is people fleeing Wayne County?

[Bham1982]

I don't believe the Census recognizes "Southeast Michigan" as a specific Census area.

They released all the county data nationwide, so we have the data for all MI counties. Genesee and Wayne were the only major population losses statewide.

Also, Oakland and Macomb may have some of the highest population growth rates in the state, but how much of it is people fleeing Wayne County?

Ok, but so what? What does it matter? If Wayne County starts growing one day in the future by attracting people from Oakland County, then it "doesn't count"? The region, as a whole, is growing, which is good, and means the growth in Oakland/Macomb is also coming from outside the region.

[nain rouge]

Ok, but so what? What does it matter?

It matters if Metro Detroit as a whole is losing population. It means we're circling the drain. I don't know, even if the death of Detroit makes Birmingham that much more of a hot spot, it still isn't good for the region. But really, there's nowhere else for this argument to go, so I'll end it here.

[Bham1982]

It matters if Metro Detroit as a whole is losing population.

Again, we are gaining population. We're growing. Only Wayne is declining in the Detroit MSA.

[nain rouge]

Wow, the denial is strong with this one! Just ignore the state's most populous county and all is well. You and Snyder would get along like gangbusters.

[Don K]

The region, as a whole, is growing, which is good, and means the growth in Oakland/Macomb is also coming from outside the region.

Not necessarily. The region grew by a few thousand people, which means, assuming births are still more than deaths [[I hope the population here isn't old enough that that's not the case), that the region still is bleeding people to other parts of the country. So growth in Oakland and Macomb could be accounted for entirely by migration from Wayne, and those two counties could still, on net, be sending residents to other parts of the country.

That's an empirical question I'll leave to an actual expert on the subject who can analyze the underlying data.

[wolverine]

The article is urban planner GIS chemistry. I've played with stats before. I once made the people mover look more busy than the New York subway by calculating certain criteria sets. Shocking 'facts' or exaggerated analytics generate ad revenue for media outlets.

Who cares about density or block lengths. It's amenities within walking distance. Most people in Detroit aren't within walking distance of a 45,000 sqft + full service grocer open 24 hours. So 'compact' means nothing when there few economically diverse and healthy retail districts or job centers to walk to in a city with 750,000 residents.

[313WX]

Again, we are gaining population. We're growing. Only Wayne is declining in the Detroit MSA.

Those are only ESTIMATES, which mean nothing.

No one estimated 5 years ago that Detroit's population would fall to 713,000 either, but it did...

[iheartthed]

Ok, but so what? What does it matter?

It matters because it means the people most likely to leave the state are leaving from those places. People moving from Wayne are masking the losses.

[poobert]

Again, we are gaining population. We're growing. Only Wayne is declining in the Detroit MSA.

From 2010 to 2014, Oakland County added 10,997 residents, an increase of 0.9%, and Macomb County added 7,059 residents, an increase of 0.8%.

Wayne County had the greatest decline in the region, losing 17,233 residents.

That means that at least 823 people either moved to the tri-county area from somewhere else, or were born.

Well be still my soul. Where are we going to put all those people? Thanks for pointing out our rapid growth! SE Michigan is really the place to be!

Nationally, metro areas of 1 million residents or more grew at a rate of 1%.

Kind of puts things in perspective...

[mwilbert]

Most people in Detroit aren't within walking distance of a 45,000 sqft + full service grocer open 24 hours.

Neither are most people in New York City or Boston. I would guess less than 5% of the people in the US are within walking distance of such a store.

We agree that however they defined compactness doesn't really describe the living conditions of most Detroiters, but this isn't really a sensible alternative criterion.

[Bham1982]

It matters because it means the people most likely to leave the state are leaving from those places. People moving from Wayne are masking the losses.

I still don't get it. Growth is growth. Obviously, unless your county is heavily Amish or Hasidic Jewish, your county is growing from in-migration, not birth rates.

Is growth in Florida not growth because it's mostly old fogies from the Rust Belt? Is growth in Brooklyn not growth because it's mostly skinny hipsters from Ohio? Is growth in Texas not growth because it's mostly Mexican immigrants?

[iheartthed]

I still don't get it. Growth is growth. Obviously, unless your county is heavily Amish or Hasidic Jewish, your county is growing from in-migration, not birth rates.

Is growth in Florida not growth because it's mostly old fogies from the Rust Belt? Is growth in Brooklyn not growth because it's mostly skinny hipsters from Ohio? Is growth in Texas not growth because it's mostly Mexican immigrants?

Growth in New York and Florida is driven by foreign immigration.

[nain rouge]

Is growth in Florida not growth because it's mostly old fogies from the Rust Belt? Is growth in Brooklyn not growth because it's mostly skinny hipsters from Ohio? Is growth in Texas not growth because it's mostly Mexican immigrants?

Those are some outrageous equivalences. How about this: growth that isn't from cannibalizing your own metropolitan area. That's way different than someone from Ohio moving to Brooklyn, or immigration from Mexico.

I think it's better to focus on how we can fix the tragedy in Detroit then skewing stats to pretend like everything is OK. But I can hear you already: Oakland County was still one of the richest counties over 10 years ago! Yeah, yeah, I know - so the median income dropped about $40,000 from 2000 to 2010 - BIG WHOOP. OAKLAND COUNTY IS GROWING!

Stop living off the fumes of the '90s, man. Detroit is dead but we've got great gourmet BBQ!

[Danny]

Warren used to be a sprawling populated suburb since the 1970s when it had about 179,000 people. If Warren was still spawling today. It could have a population of 257,987. The city could have all of Center Line and Sterling TWP. [[ now Sterling Heights) back then annexed in a flash.

[Bham1982]

Those are some outrageous equivalences. How about this: growth that isn't from cannibalizing your own metropolitan area. That's way different than someone from Ohio moving to Brooklyn, or immigration from Mexico.

No offense, but you have no idea how metropolitan areas actually work. All metro areas draw their population primarily from inter-regional moves.

There is absolutely nothing odd about counties in a metro gaining residents from counties within the same metro. It happens in every single metro.

Just be honest- you're pissed the region is growing because it means the DYes "regions can't grow without a healthy core" talking point is false.

[nain rouge]

Look at the 2013 census estimates. Look at them! What's that with a negative sign next to it? Oh yes, that's Metro Detroit! It joins Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Dayton as some of the only metropolitan areas shrinking. You can keep repeating SEMCOG's skewed reporting of the data, but the truth is right there in front of you.

[nain rouge]

No offense, but you have no idea how metropolitan areas actually work. All metro areas draw their population primarily from inter-regional moves.

Offense taken. We're not idiots.

No one seriously points to movement from county to county within a metropolitan area as growth unless they have a delusional agenda to push.

[jt1]

And bear in mind that SEMCOG projections are used for planning for roads, infrastructure, etc.

SEMCOG projections, in my opinion, are based more on where people want growth to occur [[and support it with state, and regional dollars) than representing reality.

SEMCOG likes the whole self fulfilling prohpesy concept.