Census Bureau has good news for Detroit: Population loss is slowing

[Gistok]

Look at Rome... over a million people living there during the First Century AD... then nearly depopulated by the time of the dark ages [[5th-9th Centuries).

Near the end of the Middle Ages cities such as Florence had 130,000, while Rome still had a piddling 25,000. It was not until the flowering of the Renaissance that it started its' slow climb back up to about 2.7 million today.

[iheartthed]

I would not put much weight into the census estimates.

Quote taken from this story about Grand Rapids.
http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapi...rapids_po.html

It's not gonna give a 100% accurate count, but it's probably a good indicator of a trend. Detroit population losses are typically paralleled by population losses in Wayne County as a whole. Just like magnitude of population loss in Detroit City are also paralleled by stagnation or declining population at the metropolitan level for each decade since 1970. For example, Metro Detroit grew by the largest percentage in the 1990s than any time since the 1960s and that was also the decade Detroit lost the least amount of population since 1950.

[iheartthed]

I saw a news brief yesterday that said Detroit and Baltimore were the only cities in the top 33 that lost population since 2010.

[thecarl]

I would take this with a huge grain of salt. Year to year population numbers are generated through math models. Only the every 10 year census numbers are hard counts. They severely underestimated Detroit's population losses during the years 2000-2010. The 2010 numbers were a huge shock since they did such a bad job estimating the numbers in the previous 10 years.

ndavies, wasn't Detroit able to "find" tens of thousands of people that the Census Bureau missed in 2000 - but they didn't get added back onto the rolls in 2010?

[thecarl]

Simply put, the ones that could afford to leave have left. The rest are stuck and couldn't leave if they wanted to.

It's important to consider the folks that cannot [[or won't) move because of their age, health, or lifetime attachment to their home - and these people typically have family members that stay in the city for the sole purpose of making sure their loved ones are cared for. As the older generation fades, their caretakers will leave the city too.

[hudkina]

Between 2000 and 2010, suburban Wayne County [[i.e. everything except Detroit, Highland Park, and Hamtramck) actually saw a very slight population increase of a little over 3,000 people. The growth of the fringe offset the decline in the aging inner-ring. Essentially, suburban Wayne County stagnated while the core saw a massive drop.

If the suburbs are still seeing net stagnation, then we can assume that the loss in Wayne County continues to come from the core. Hamtramck barely lost any population between 2000 and 2010 and Highland Park barely has any population left to lose, so Detroit is probably the biggest contributor to the net loss.

If Wayne County lost nearly 18,500 people between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2011 and if much of that net loss can be attributed to Detroit, then Detroit's "real population" is probably closer to 696,000 and the rate of loss during that period is probably closer to 2.5%.

At that rate, Detroit's population could be roughly 604,000 in 2020, or a loss of about 15% from 2010. While that's less then the massive decline seen between 2000 and 2010, it's certainly not anything to write home about.

Granted, I think as the decade rolls on, the city will continue to see improvements, particularly in the core which will help offset the loss in the neighborhoods. I'm guessing a 15% drop for the decade is at the higher end of the range, with a more plausible number being closer to 10% and a 2020 population in the range of 640,000.

[coracle]

Fieger was on with Mitch Albom yesterday evening and said Detroit should start to annex suburbs like Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills so the city can have a stable tax base...

If the idea of annexing suburbs to subsidize Detroit residents came about there would be an unending line of moving vehicles crawling south on 75 until the area was empty rather than shovel their money into a bottomless pit. Better idea is to annex Fieger's company and the like and persuade all the Lawyers to leave town - now that would be good for everybody as they don't add value to anything in city or suburbs.

[Scottathew]

[Shabazz]We'll burn down the suburbs before Detroit can annex them![/Shabazz]

[Hermod]

If suburbs are annexed, it dilutes the voting strength of current Detroit. There have been court cases where you cannot use annexation to dilute the voting strength of a minority.

As an example, if the tri-county area were combined into a "super Detroit" the residents of existing Detroit would control only 15-17% of the seats in the council, commission, or other legislative body. I am not sure that Joann Watson wants to become a vocal, but powerless, back bencher

[Scottathew]

There are ways we can regionalize without having to make everything one big city.

Las Vegas and many of the surrounding areas are all covered by the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department.

However, I doubt many suburban communities would not be comfortable with this loss of control.

[coracle]

If suburbs are annexed, it dilutes the voting strength of current Detroit. There have been court cases where you cannot use annexation to dilute the voting strength of a minority.

As an example, if the tri-county area were combined into a "super Detroit" the residents of existing Detroit would control only 15-17% of the seats in the council, commission, or other legislative body. I am not sure that Joann Watson wants to become a vocal, but powerless, back bencher

You've hit the spot. Detroit is a city where for several decades a Minority has been a large majority [[over 80%) and demonstrated they can run the City. I doubt Representatives from annexed Suburbs could run it any differently. Its been noticeable recently that Detroit doesn't need help with "strings attached" so my guess is that even with annexation ways would be found to make it not work.
However if "the Population loss is slowing" and Detroit is indeed number 7 of the 15 American hottest cities of the future [[another Thread) it's premature to consider annexation. Things look good; why try to alter natural trends?

[lucille]

I am looking for relatives of Thomas Shirley Smith [[My Father) who died in Detroit Michigan in 1989. His brother is Cletus Smith. My fathers wife was Christine Novak. Help me if you can. Thank-you!

[Danny]

So Detroit's population slow down to 710,000. If that article is right. [[ due to new regional growth from Downtown Detroit, Midtown and parts of Mexicantown/Southwest Detroit. By 2015 Detroit's population could rebound up to 756,345.

[hudkina]

A more probable population of Detroit is closer to 696,000. Also, it would be almost impossible to have the city see a net population gain between 2010 and 2020. Even if the population-loss bottoms out in the next few years, or even sees an upswing near the tail-end of the decade, it won't be enough to offset the losses since the last count. A more plausible population in 2020 would be something in the 600,000-640,000 range.

[Jimaz]

If the population loss is just now starting to slow, in calculus jargon this would be called the inflection point of the population vs. time function—just in case anyone needs the technical term for a search engine.

[warsaw7]

If the population loss is just now starting to slow, in calculus jargon this would be called the inflection point of the population vs. time function—just in case anyone needs the technical term for a search engine.

I am working on a pitch right now and I am curious to gauge an estimate of how many citizens the city of Detroit plans to attract in the next 5 years, especially in the downtown/midtown neighborhoods. Any help is appreciated.

[animatedmartian]

I am working on a pitch right now and I am curious to gauge an estimate of how many citizens the city of Detroit plans to attract in the next 5 years, especially in the downtown/midtown neighborhoods. Any help is appreciated.

DDP has a goal of attracting at least 10,000 residents by 2020. As of September, there's at least 3,000 residential units coming online within the next few years with demand for at least several thousand more.

http://downtowndetroit.org/ddp-relea...ential-demand/

[emu steve]

When folks try to figure out what is happening to Detroit's population they need to get data on three factors:

1). Births,

2). Deaths,

3). [[Net) Migration

In many 'graying' areas, the birth rate is low. They also have higher death rates. Migration might not be high as those living there 'aren't going any where.' I'd think suburbs like Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, etc. meet this description.

Growing suburbs probably higher birth then death rates and positive net migration.

For Detroit, we mostly speak on migration [[in-migration to downtown, midtown, etc. and out-migration from the rest of the city).

I have no idea what births and deaths are like for Detroit.

A good city to compare is D.C. which is experiencing solid population growth. I assume it is mostly net in-migration.

[Danny]

if Detroit's population is slowing down. It's practically due to more young professionals moving into to Gilberttown Detroit and further up to Midtown. However more middle income black Detroiters are still moving out the suburbs starting with the inner ring areas. What about poor Detroiters? Well they stuck in the middle looking a place where feed off the crumbs of rich folks.

[401don]

Detroit doesn't need people. It needs taxpayers.

[emu steve]

Detroit doesn't need people. It needs taxpayers.

Yes. As much as say a WSU student is nice for the city of Detroit's population count, a young professional paying the city income is much more valuable.

[TTime]

Memphis is only growing by annexing its suburbs. The inner-city there looks a lot like Detroit... Except there are a lot more empty lots.

I was just in Memphis and it does have a similar feel to Detroit but Detroit has way more empty lots than Memphis. It's not even a contest.

[iheartthed]

I was just in Memphis and it does have a similar feel to Detroit but Detroit has way more empty lots than Memphis. It's not even a contest.

Downtown vs downtown or city vs city? I got the sense that downtown Memphis had demolished quite a lot more than downtown Detroit, but it's been a couple of years since I was last in Memphis. If you're talking about the entire city vs city then I'll cede that point to you.

I recall being sad about how much of Memphis's historic downtown had been demolished. Everything surrounding Beale Street was pretty much a giant parking lot. Walking from Beale to the Lorraine Hotel [[roughly half a mile) was mainly a stroll past gravel parking lots. I felt like a stroll of similar length in downtown Detroit would've taken you past an urban environment that was far more intact, even if largely populated by abandoned buildings.

[TTime]

Downtown vs downtown or city vs city? I got the sense that downtown Memphis had demolished quite a lot more than downtown Detroit, but it's been a couple of years since I was last in Memphis. If you're talking about the entire city vs city then I'll cede that point to you.

I recall being sad about how much of Memphis's historic downtown had been demolished. Everything surrounding Beale Street was pretty much a giant parking lot. Walking from Beale to the Lorraine Hotel [[roughly half a mile) was mainly a stroll past gravel parking lots. I felt like a stroll of similar length in downtown Detroit would've taken you past an urban environment that was far more intact, even if largely populated by abandoned buildings.

Good point about the area surrounding Beale St. It was still basically wide open parking lots but I think that is partially by design because of the big music festivals they have. The downtown area definitely had some newer looking rehabs and development that felt very similar to Detroit's. City by city, the parts of Memphis that I saw had far less abandonment.

[Dan Wesson]

Detroit doesn't need people. It needs taxpayers.

Bingo!