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  1. #1

    Default 2012 Predictions for Metro Detroit-Windsor

    For all of the soothsayers out there, here's a chance to make some predictions that we can revisit in 2013. Here's my top ten shots in the dark.

    1. Despite all efforts to avoid an Emergency Financial Manager, Governor Snyder appoints an EFM for Detroit. The new EFM, Freeman Hendrix, pushes forward with cuts to a wide swath of city services as his moves are challenged with lawsuits and protests. Mayor Dave Bing resigns in protest and returns to Franklin.

    2. Governor Snyder's effort to build a new bridge across the Detroit River stalls again as lawsuits by Matty Maroun and Republican legislators block his efforts to get around the state legislature.

    3. The effort to establish a new RTA to implement Governor Snyder's vision for a BRT system in SE Michigan fails in Lansing.

    4. Embroiled in ongoing scandals in Wayne County government, Bob Ficano faces a serious challenge for County Executive from both a Democratic primary challenger and a prominent western Wayne County Republican. [Save for 2013 since Ficano's not up for re-election until 2014.]

    5. Dan Gilbert's assemblage downtown buildings lures a major new corporate tenant even as the city's future under an EFM leaves many questioning the timing of the move. George "Demolition" Jackson at DEGC tries to take credit for the move declaring that his downtown demolition work made it possible.

    6. Wings make the playoffs, Tigers make the playoffs again. Lions considered Super Bowl contenders in 2013. Pistons continue to rebuild.

    7. With financial backing from the state, the Huron-Clinton Metroparks takes initial steps to take over management of Belle Isle.

    8. "Government Motors" period ends at GM as Feds sells off remaining stake in GM during summer stock rally.

    9. Kwame Kilpatrick heads back to prison after conviction on multiple charges in federal court.

    10. In the face of revenue shortfalls and declining services, several SE Michigan communities take first steps towards merger even as residents protest loss of community identity. Consolidation efforts get hung up as officials can't decide on which community name to use for the new merged communities.
    Last edited by Novine; January-01-12 at 01:55 PM. Reason: Clarified date on #4

  2. #2

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Novine View Post
    For all of the soothsayers out there, here's a chance to make some predictions that we can revisit in 2013. Here's my top ten shots in the dark.

    1. Despite all efforts to avoid an Emergency Financial Manager, Governor Snyder appoints an EFM for Detroit. The new EFM, Freeman Hendrix, pushes forward with cuts to a wide swath of city services as his moves are challenged with lawsuits and protests. Mayor Dave Bing resigns in protest and returns to Franklin.

    2. Governor Snyder's effort to build a new bridge across the Detroit River stalls again as lawsuits by Matty Maroun and Republican legislators block his efforts to get around the state legislature.

    3. The effort to establish a new RTA to implement Governor Snyder's vision for a BRT system in SE Michigan fails in Lansing.

    4. Embroiled in ongoing scandals in Wayne County government, Bob Ficano faces a serious challenge for County Executive from both a Democratic primary challenger and a prominent western Wayne County Republican.

    5. Dan Gilbert's assemblage downtown buildings lures a major new corporate tenant even as the city's future under an EFM leaves many questioning the timing of the move. George "Demolition" Jackson at DEGC tries to take credit for the move declaring that his downtown demolition work made it possible.

    6. Wings make the playoffs, Tigers make the playoffs again. Lions considered Super Bowl contenders in 2013. Pistons continue to rebuild.

    7. With financial backing from the state, the Huron-Clinton Metroparks takes initial steps to take over management of Belle Isle.

    8. "Government Motors" period ends at GM as Feds sells off remaining stake in GM during summer stock rally.

    9. Kwame Kilpatrick heads back to prison after conviction on multiple charges in federal court.

    10. In the face of revenue shortfalls and declining services, several SE Michigan communities take first steps towards merger even as residents protest loss of community identity. Consolidation efforts get hung up as officials can't decide on which community name to use for the new merged communities.
    Well,
    We hope for the best... it will rise from the ashes.


    Happy New years!!!!

  3. #3

    Default

    Well I definitely better put up my top ten predictions:

    1. An EFM is appointed for the City of Detroit, despite cooperation from the state to prevent such intervention. That job will be a lot worse than mine.

    2. Everyone in the Metro Detroit area feels the heat, as more closure of retail stores in suburbs tend to enter the headlines.

    3. Continued decrease in population in Detroit, as well as a loss of population in its surrounding suburbs.

    4. Support for Regional Transit increases in the surrounding suburbs. LBP is voted out of office for his failure to support efforts to establish a Regional Transit Authority.

    5. The Uniroyal portion of the Detroit Riverwalk will be cleaned up before the end of the year to connect the rest of the Riverwalk to Gabriel Richard Park.

    6. As transit is cut, the use of bicycles increase. The city of Detroit becomes more bike-friendly in order to compensate for its failures in public transit.

    7. Matty Mouroun spends some time in the slammer for failing to complete the Gateway project. The slumlord finally gets charged also for not taking care of the properties he and his company owns, including the Michigan Central Depot.

    8. While under the rule of the EFM, the city council is dissolved. The mayor, resigns quietly and the city becomes controlled like a corporation. The EFM leaves with all seats of government up for grabs. EFM stays until the beginning of city government elections in 2013.

    9. Under the EFM, the People Mover is shut down to save money. Sorry but there's going to be a lot of event-goers walking through the streets of Detroit this year.

    10. DDOT and SMART are dissolved by the end of the year.

  4. #4

    Default

    Ummm, per Item #6, #9 and #10 you best have a functioning car.... preferably an older yet reliable cash-paid car without an expensive car note and the full coverage insurance that is sky high!

  5. #5

    Default

    1. More retail and electronic store may open whether temporarily or permenately in downtown Detroit.

    2. Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton will hold a mass march and protest down Woodward against to coming of an EFM.

    3. Ficano might step down from office due to the scandal in Wayne County which may have some politicians in Detroit involved in it.

    4. DDOt and Smart will merge with more express busses that will take office worker from Downtown to past the city limits with no stops in Detroit.

    5. Kwame Kilpatrick will be given a lighter if no sentence by the Feds.

    6. Lions will go further in the playoffs .

    7. Port Authority will have a big hand in redeveloping Woodward avenue and more ships will dock at the port.

    8. Kiss some of the residents in these old neighborhoods goodbye as they leave Detroit on a massive scale. Gangbangers, armed robbers, rapist, and other criminals will be put into FEMA camps.

    9. Detroit 300 will grow in membership but a little shakeup will occur

  6. #6

    Default

    1. Detroit will go into bankrupcty while losing a whopping 100,000 people this year alone.

    2. 30-60 additional DPS schools will close.

    3. The Whole Foods project will fall flat on its face.

    4. The outskitrs of the city, particularly the NE side, will feel increasingly empty and look increasingly bombed out.

    5. More suburban communities will opt out of SMART.

    6. SMART will attempt to reinstate, while still limited, a reasonable amount of service in/out of the city to counteract the drastic drop in ridership. Meanwhile DDOT will cut their services even further.

    7. One or two downtown hotels will lose their corporate flagship.

    8. Gas will come back down to $2.50/gallon.

    9. There will be a notable absence of road construction this summer.

    10. Half of the city will remain without lighting (in rotation).

    11. Grosse Pointe Shores and Wayne County will vote on whether or not Grosse Pointe Shores can become completely a part of Macomb County.

    12. Dirt will still be moved around on the Shoppes at Gateway site.

    13. Forman Mills will open at Grand River and Greenfield.

    14. The officially empty parts of the city will be closed off from traffic and infrastructure will be routed accordingly.

    15. Garbage pickup will only be bi-weekly, if not once per month.

    16. One of Detroit's cultural and/or entertainment institutions will close permanently.

    17. The remaining independently-owned radio stations will fold to Clear Channel, Radio One, Citadel or Cumulus.

    18. Wayne County will attempt to de-corporate Detroit into its own County.

    19. The national unemployment rate will remain around 9%, and Michigan's unemployment rate will remain between 10% and 11%.

    20. The Detroit Lions will make it to the division finals and lose against Green Bay.

    21. Several of the Chaldean-owned grocery stores and liquor stores will close, or the owners will burn them down to cash in the insurance money, as their customer base continues to rapidly decline.

    22. The RTA proposal will fall flat on its face.

    23. BRT? What is this "BRT" you speak of!?
    Last edited by 313WX; January-01-12 at 10:26 AM.

  7. #7

    Default

    I think a Wal Mart will open at Grand River and Greenfield

  8. #8

    Default

    For those of you predicting outward movement by Ficano, guess again. He's not going anywhere. He's not up for re-election until 2014.

    The Tigers, however, will win the World Series!!!

  9. #9

    Default

    My one prediction is that the EFM will step in and sell off and privatize almost everything in the city such as the items listed in the following article for starters:

    http://www.mackinac.org/16189

    Detroit Exhausts Its Options

    Michael D. LaFaive, 11/18/2011

    ...In 2000 the Center recommended full privatization of these departments and much more in its special, Detroit-specific issue of Michigan Privatization Report. Some of its ideas and possible savings from that report deserve to be repeated.


    1. The city should contract out for the operation of its busing system. Possible savings: $60 million annually. (Through 2010 the operating subsidy ranged from $70 million to $75 million).
    2. Sell Detroit’s electrical power system to an investor-owned utility. Estimated revenue from private sale in 2000: $301 million to $501 million.
    3. Sell Cobo Conference/Exhibition Center. When we published our 2000 MPR, Cobo was receiving operating subsidies exceeding $15 million. A 1991 issue of Detroiter magazine — 20 years ago — estimated a sales price of $50 million. At that price a private owner might pay $1.9 million in property taxes each year.
    4. Sell the water system for between $1.775 billion and $2.285 billion or just contract out for its management ($47.2 million in annual savings).
    5. Contract out for garbage collection. Savings: $6.4 million annually.
    6. Privatize inspections for mechanical, electrical, plumbing or building permits and licenses. We estimated in 2000 that the possible savings for privatizing these positions could top $5.1 million.


    1. Sell Bell Isle: $370 million in one-time revenue and up to $13.8 million in new revenue. In addition, the city would be relieved of its [then] annual appropriation to Island care of $6.6 million.

    If Detroit had only contracted out for operation of their busing, water, garbage and inspections in 2000 and saved only half of what the Center estimated could be realized, the city would have been roughly $592 million to the good over the following decade. Imagine if it had sold assets, too, or saved the full amount of our conservative estimates? ...

  10. #10

    Default

    My prediction for myself: I won't be ringing in 2013 within 50 miles of Detroit, unless of course I am visiting my family. Sad, but likely.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    233

    Default

    1. After optimistic 2011 season, Lions go 6-10.
    2. The big tire on I-94 gets stolen.
    3. Obama gets re-elected.
    4. Whole Foods never happens.

  12. #12

    Default

    1. Michigan looses 4,000,000 people.
    2. An EFM is appointed for Detroit, leading to widespread rioting that quickly spawns copycat riots across all suburbs of both Detroit and Windsor.
    3. A tornado comes and destroys the Chrysler Trenton Engine Plant, the Dix and Eureka Walmart, the I-94 tire, Fairlane Green, the Lions practice field, Fairlane itself and Grand River and Greenfield before ending at the State Fairgrounds.
    4. A larger dock waiting room is begun on the Ford Auditorium site, but violent winds tear it down.
    5. After some arguments, the Pinnacle Race Course is demolished.
    6. Summit Place Mall is demolished.

  13. #13

    Default

    jackie5275, thanks for clarifying that point about Ficano. For some reason, I had him on the same election cycle as the President. I'll have to bump that prediction to 2013.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    119

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by davewindsor View Post
    My one prediction is that the EFM will step in and sell off and privatize almost everything in the city...
    Detroit Institute of Arts director Graham Beal told the New York Times he often fields questions about selling artworks from new trustees facing intense pressure to raise money: “Since we have four van Goghs, people say why don’t we sell one of the van Goghs? It makes perfect sense in the business world, where they’re looking for assets to sell the way Ford sold Jaguar.”

    Ford had to sell Jaguar outright because an auto company, even Jaguar, is no reliable store of value the way an Old Master or French Impressionist is. Detroit can use its DIA collection to raise many, many billions to fund a municipal arts endowment by offering the public a very safe place to store the value of its savings, using artworks in a museum like gold in a vault (of course, when you save via gold you stimulate holes in the ground, so saving via artworks and stimulating artistry is infinitely more socially responsible). My one prediction is that this is the year Detroiters will realize their municipal government is one the wealthiest in America and that their lives ought to reflect that fact, rather than unremitting demands for higher taxes amid lower services. Detroit may be cash-poor, but it doesn't have to stay cash-poor, and it doesn't have to sell everything including the kitchen sink's water supply. It just needs to mobilize the value in its crown jewels, and the Van Goghs don't have to go in a van to do that.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    1,819

    Default Predictions?

    short term, long term - 6 months, 10 years

    Where are the city & region going?

  16. #16

  17. #17

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 313WX View Post
    1. Detroit will go into bankrupcty while losing a whopping 100,000 people this year alone.

    2. 30-60 additional DPS schools will close.

    3. The Whole Foods project will fall flat on its face.

    4. The outskitrs of the city, particularly the NE side, will feel increasingly empty and look increasingly bombed out.

    5. More suburban communities will opt out of SMART.

    6. SMART will attempt to reinstate, while still limited, a reasonable amount of service in/out of the city to counteract the drastic drop in ridership. Meanwhile DDOT will cut their services even further.

    7. One or two downtown hotels will lose their corporate flagship.

    8. Gas will come back down to $2.50/gallon.

    9. There will be a notable absence of road construction this summer.

    10. Half of the city will remain without lighting (in rotation).

    11. Grosse Pointe Shores and Wayne County will vote on whether or not Grosse Pointe Shores can become completely a part of Macomb County.

    12. Dirt will still be moved around on the Shoppes at Gateway site.

    13. Forman Mills will open at Grand River and Greenfield.

    14. The officially empty parts of the city will be closed off from traffic and infrastructure will be routed accordingly.

    15. Garbage pickup will only be bi-weekly, if not once per month.

    16. One of Detroit's cultural and/or entertainment institutions will close permanently.

    17. The remaining independently-owned radio stations will fold to Clear Channel, Radio One, Citadel or Cumulus.

    18. Wayne County will attempt to de-corporate Detroit into its own County.

    19. The national unemployment rate will remain around 9%, and Michigan's unemployment rate will remain between 10% and 11%.

    20. The Detroit Lions will make it to the division finals and lose against Green Bay.

    21. Several of the Chaldean-owned grocery stores and liquor stores will close, or the owners will burn them down to cash in the insurance money, as their customer base continues to rapidly decline.

    22. The RTA proposal will fall flat on its face.

    23. BRT? What is this "BRT" you speak of!?
    With regard to your #11. I was recently called to participate in a focus group. The idea being focus grouped was if GP to withdraw from Wayne, would we support GPs consolidating and becoming their own county. Apparently for every dollar GP contributes to Wayne county it sees less that .20 in services. The discussion was basically "eh you're going to be a donor if you join macomb, what about just making your own county?" At 45,000 people, it's not even nearly the smallest (population wise) in the state. I would guess that is going to be brought up if they are focus testing the idea...

  18. #18

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bailey View Post
    With regard to your #11. I was recently called to participate in a focus group. The idea being focus grouped was if GP to withdraw from Wayne, would we support GPs consolidating and becoming their own county. Apparently for every dollar GP contributes to Wayne county it sees less that .20 in services. The discussion was basically "eh you're going to be a donor if you join macomb, what about just making your own county?" At 45,000 people, it's not even nearly the smallest (population wise) in the state. I would guess that is going to be brought up if they are focus testing the idea...
    Why would this only be an issue in GPS? Northville, Memphis, Richmond, and Milan are all in the same boat. None have ever had to aguish about deciding which county to be in.

    Here is my fun guess: Tim Hortons will announce a drive thru in Midtown and Starbucks will close.

  19. #19

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DetroitPlanner View Post
    Why would this only be an issue in GPS? Northville, Memphis, Richmond, and Milan are all in the same boat. None have ever had to aguish about deciding which county to be in.

    Here is my fun guess: Tim Hortons will announce a drive thru in Midtown and Starbucks will close.
    http://www.detroityes.com/mb/showthr...+Pointe+Shores

  20. #20

    Default

    OK, I'll be the optimist.

    1) An emergency financial manager is appointed, but, as in Hamtramck and Highland Park, the sky doesn't fall. Council members howl mightly but are roundly ignored.

    2) Police and fire are cut, but crime and fires hold steady—they do not increase.

    3) Population increase in the central city continues and partially offsets neighborhood losses. Independent businesses in Corktown, southwest, WSU area, and Hamtramck begin to coalesce into hubs of residential and business activity.

    4) More sections of the Riverwalk approach completion and are heavily used even before they officially open.

    5) New housing developments touting proximity to the Riverwalk are announced.

    6) As SMART and DDOT wither, Rick Snyder pushes through measures legalizing private jitney vans on major arteries; they are spectacularly successful.

    7) Snyder passes the new bridge by decree. Industry leaders put the screws to legislative Republicans not to resist.

    8) Two large new restaurants aimed at families open downtown and flourish.

  21. #21

    Default

    Medicare subsidy will be cut more than 30 percent over the next several years (not prediction, but impending fact).

    Sooo... what effect do you think this will have on Detroit hospitals? Suburban hospitals? How will the "dominoes fall", so to speak?

    Hint: If many MDs live in Grosse Pointe(s), how will "domino cascade(s)" affect GPs? (Exempting, as one would expect, OB/GYNs and pediatricians...)

  22. #22

    Default

    2012 Predictions

    1. The Lions will disappoint their fans.

  23. #23

    Default

    1. No EFM will be appointed. Instead, Detroit will file bankruptcy.

    2. Oakland County loses top credit rating as result of Detroit bankruptcy.

    3. M1 Rail moves forward according to the original plan.

    4. RTA is DOA. So is BRT.

    5. Bing resigns.

  24. #24

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
    2. Oakland County loses top credit rating as result of Detroit bankruptcy.
    Ah yes, that sounds like a good prediction too.

    I'll have to edit my predictions again...

  25. #25

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 313WX View Post
    1. Detroit will go into bankrupcty while losing a whopping 100,000 people this year alone.

    2. 30-60 additional DPS schools will close.

    3. The Whole Foods project will fall flat on its face.

    4. The outskitrs of the city, particularly the NE side, will feel increasingly empty and look increasingly bombed out.

    5. More suburban communities will opt out of SMART.

    6. SMART will attempt to reinstate, while still limited, a reasonable amount of service in/out of the city to counteract the drastic drop in ridership. Meanwhile DDOT will cut their services even further.

    7. One or two downtown hotels will lose their corporate flagship.

    8. Gas will come back down to $2.50/gallon.

    9. There will be a notable absence of road construction this summer.

    10. Half of the city will remain without lighting (in rotation).

    11. Grosse Pointe Shores and Wayne County will vote on whether or not Grosse Pointe Shores can become completely a part of Macomb County.

    12. Dirt will still be moved around on the Shoppes at Gateway site.

    13. Forman Mills will open at Grand River and Greenfield.

    14. The officially empty parts of the city will be closed off from traffic and infrastructure will be routed accordingly.

    15. Garbage pickup will only be bi-weekly, if not once per month.

    16. One of Detroit's cultural and/or entertainment institutions will close permanently.

    17. The remaining independently-owned radio stations will fold to Clear Channel, Radio One, Citadel or Cumulus.

    18. Wayne County will attempt to de-corporate Detroit into its own County.

    19. The national unemployment rate will remain around 9%, and Michigan's unemployment rate will remain between 10% and 11%.

    20. The Detroit Lions will make it to the division finals and lose against Green Bay.

    21. Several of the Chaldean-owned grocery stores and liquor stores will close, or the owners will burn them down to cash in the insurance money, as their customer base continues to rapidly decline.

    22. The RTA proposal will fall flat on its face.

    23. BRT? What is this "BRT" you speak of!?
    24. Michigan's bond rating will flip BACK to negative with a possible downgrade, and every municipality and county in Metro Detroit will see their bond rating drop.

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