Metro Detroit-Windsor 2019 Predictions

DYes' 8th annual new year prediction thread is open for business.

For historical purposes, below are links to the previous new year prediction threads:

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

And here we go:

1. After another disappointing season, Matt Patricia is himself booted away from his Lions head coach job.
2. [[Since I failed on this the past three years) Eastland closes.
3. Sears closes all of their remaining stores.
4. GM announces additional layoffs, but perhaps still not quite at pre-bankruptcy levels.
5. Another major retailer is driven out of business by the retail apocalypse.
6. Tigers' and Red Wings' slow respective rebuilds continue, but they each once again fail to reach the playoffs.
7. Pistons continue with a better-than-average performance while still missing the playoffs.
8. [[revival of an old 2016 prediction with some changes) Meijer breaks ground on their small-sized concept store on East Jefferson and Rivard.
9. The promised District Detroit residential buildings either continue to not break ground or remain just abandoned construction frames.
10. A Second Great Recession starts towards the end of the year.

Add your predictions!

1. Another horrible lions season
2. Two large companies moving there HQ from the suburbs to downtown
3. Three major bedrock developments break ground
4. Qline expansion proposal announced
5 RTA back on the ballot
6. More FASTbus routes
7. discussion on removing the people mover
8. Chrysler announced some sort of development in the city
9. Lyft line and uber pool come to Detroit
10. Urban outfitter, H&M and several retail stores open on Woodward
11. Apple store announced downtown

Windsor will be hit with a serious back-bacon famine. The yeast smell from Hiram-Walker will be replaced with a distinct herb smell.

More development on the river front? Maybe.

I am also willing to bet Patricia keeps his job despite the Lions going 7-9.

Yzerman announcing some sort of return to the Red Wings after his TB contract expires.

1. Ford Motor Company asks for government help to avoid shutting down.
2. General Motors petitions Detroit to level Woodbridge with the promise of a new plant along with 10,000 high paying jobs.
3. Fiat Chrysler purchases the shuttered GM Poletown Plant to expand Jeep production.
4. Detroit's population hits a record low of 520,000.

-The gerrymandering lawsuit goes forward, Michigan is found to have seriously disenfranchised. Judge orders new lines drawn.
-Mary Sheffield/Racquel Consteneda-Lopez. Either one or both move on to statewide offices sooner rather than later. Dependent on the above.
-Several developments on Woodward north of Grand Boulevard & Michigan west of 75 are announced. Some even begin work.
-RTA doesn't make it to ballot until 2024. May be a positive as the now nongerrymandered legislatures remove several of the poison pills.
-Joe Biden announces a run for president. If he's successful Mike Duggan joins his cabinet as Dept of Transportation secretary.[[Not my personal choice BTW).

1. Development news is going to slow down a little, as an impending recession nears. 2014-2018 was a golden era of flashy renderings.
2. Early plans to revitalize Hart Plaza are released.
3. Hotel brand for the Hudson Tower is made public [[accidentally leaked).
4. I-375 project plans are finalized [[as a boulevard).
5. Detroit gets an MLS team, to play in Ford Field in 2022. The ownership group has the recent success of Atlanta United playing in a football stadium to thank.
6. DCFC announces longterm plans to build a new stadium in Detroit, with the hopes of attracting major [[non-Dan Gilbert) investment. A rivalry is born, even if it only takes place on Twitter for the time being.
7. Red Wings show signs of improvement, Tigers continue to rebuild, Lions remain the same old Lions and the Pistons have to slog through one more year of bad Stan Van Gundy contracts on the books before progress is made. Dark times for Detroit sports.

1. Neighborhoods of Grandmont-Rosedale, East English Village, further southwest into southwest Detroit reflect an increase in interest from professionals pushed out of downtown and the "uptown" Detroit neighborhoods of PW, UD, GA, and SF. North End and near eastside attract more urban pioneers. Midtown and downtown continue to experience an increase in population and prices while the rest of the city besides these neighborhoods continue to empty out, resulting in continued, albeit modest, population decline.
2. More unspecified bad news from the Whatever-Three automakers.
3. President Trump isn't felled but fatally weakened by a thousand cuts. His approval rating will remain frozen in the high-30s, buoyed only by his fanatics. Republicans don't abandon him but entertain other candidates for 2020.
4. The Roman Catholic Church, including the Archdiocese of Detroit in 2019, is roiled by sex abuse reports nearly identical to that in Pennsylvania. The hierarchy continue to obfuscate while people continue to vote with their feet. Petty politics between the Bishop of Rome and the Cardinals don't result in anything.
4. Dodgers win the World Series [[shot in the dark not based on stats). Tigers do insignificantly better than last year.
5. The economy doesn't enter recession but growth slows.
6. Western Europe is rocked by unrest [[including a disasterous hard Brexit) and protest but doesn't go the way of Eastern Europe, which continues to veer hard towards authoritarianism.

1. Ground is broken on the new "urban Meijer" mixed use development on Jefferson.

2. The Riverwalk is finally connected to Belle Isle through the Uniroyal site. The rest of the site however remains a field with no real plans.

3. 375 death knell as plans are finalized to turn it into an at-grade Blvd.

4. Joe Louis is demolished, rendering for apartments and commercial are released along with plans to bury the lodge between Cobo and Fort Street

5. Olympia continues to distance themselves from their "District Detroit" promises. No new construction breaks ground and their abandoned buildings continue to rot. They will claim more of their Cass Corridor properties are structurally unsound and ask for emergency demolition permits for surface parking.

1. Auto industry has first bad year since 2009; region's economy retrenches [[though not full-on recession unless Trump does something stupid even for his standards)

2. Former KMart HQ site redevelopment announced

3. Region's housing market declines, affecting everywhere from downtown to exurbs. Flippers get caught with pants down

3. Ford replaces CEO with actual car guy

4. At least one major regional mall shuts its doors

5. IKEA announces second regional location

1. Second Whole Foods announced by year-end, this one downtown on Monroe Block development.
2. GM-related holdings sell notable swaths of riverfront land to Gilbert-related holdings in first half of year, cashing in and letting development happen.
3. A plan, at the least, for the Ford Auditorium site and Bates Street [[involving mixed use along Bates) gets hatched and the RFP goes out [[this better happen!).
4. We see construction on multiple Eastern Market sites, introducing newly constructed residences and retail space.
5. Pistons make the playoffs by a hair, Red Wings miss badly, Tigers up to 76 wins, Lions up to 9 wins, Michigan basketball finally takes it all, Michigan football makes the playoff but loses badly to a southern team.
6. Olympia-entities maintain their track record of not building a SINGLE residence in the City of Detroit, and this time, Mayor Duggan starts makes public, if veiled, statements about them, and the City's lawyers begin prosecuting their blight.
7. We look back shockingly fondly on Gov. Snyder's policies toward Detroit [[if not many of the rest of his policies), and Duggan works hard to forge inroads with Whitmer focusing on transit and schools-- but she will have a learning curve and the results will take time.
8. Inflow = outflow for Detroit population, setting stage for better than anticipated 2020 census figures [[which will still have a huge asterisk re reliability due to Trump-Pence policies).

1. The U.S. slips into recession by end of 2019. The recession is driven by slowing tech sector and is milder than the Great Recession for both Detroit and the U.S., but there is a slow down in development projects.
2. Related to above, downtown Warren gets canceled.
3. Ford and GM continue to move their focus away from personal vehicles.
4. Tesla implodes, GM purchases a controlling stake.
5. Lyft IPO flops. Ford purchases minority stake in company.
6. Detroit mulls ways to discourage surface lots downtown.
7. Matt Patricia is fired at the end of 2019.
8. Michigan men's basketball goes back to the Final Four.
9. Michigan men's football wins the Big 10 championship because everyone else is so terrible. Team gets embarrassed in playoffs.
10. MSU continues to suck.

1. Eastland Center closes.

2. BJ's Wholesale Club will announce several more locations in Metro Detroit.

3. Chick-Fil-A will continue to gradually ramp up its expansion in Metro Detroit.

4. All Sears/Kmart stores will be liquidated and shuttered.

5. GM will announce it's exiting Canada, South America and South Korea.

6. Snyder will be further implicated in the Flint Water Crisis.

After a "long run" Cobo will be renamed

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Originally Posted by pocketchange

After a "long run" Cobo will be renamed

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The Coleman A. Young Cobo Center.

1. A recession doesn't happen but growth slows
2. All major projects continue with only a few delays and some big openings
3. Detroit city real estate continues to be hot hot hot, metro area remains a strong market
4. Hopefully some progress with transit
5. Big 2 remain in their transition phase but still fine
6. More major grants and donations from philanthropic groups like the Ballmers
7. some major retail announced for downtown

overall probably a good year.

I predict :

A FrostMelt bike
https://mogodetroit.org/blog/frostbike-is-coming/

An ongoing scooter war
https://mogodetroit.org/blog/frostbike-is-coming/

Well, I'll place my predictions on the board:

1. Inflation increases all prices from bus fare, to restaurants, to rent.
2. Progress accelerates with regional transit.
3. A small cafe opens in the Rosa Parks Transit Center.
4. Car insurance increases so much that the use of cars in metro Detroit, decreases.
5. Gentrification continues in the neighborhoods surrounding Downtown Detroit, leading to a revolt between present residents and incoming residents. The Two Detroits fight against each other to survive the year.
6. At the end of the year, the Lions remain without a Super Bowl, the Tigers, Red Wings, and Pistons at least play a few playoff games before they are wiped off the map.
7. The remaining residents of Detroit gather at Coleman Young Municipal Center in a non-violent protest against the present gentrification of the city. Non-violent protests continue during the year as current residents are foreclosed out of their homes, and consistently thrown out of their apartments during the year.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by K-slice

1. Ground is broken on the new "urban Meijer" mixed use development on Jefferson.

2. The Riverwalk is finally connected to Belle Isle through the Uniroyal site. The rest of the site however remains a field with no real plans.

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1. Please start construction this year!!!!

2. I would love see the Uniroyal Site developed similar to this municipal-owned "park" in Green Bay, WI.

THINK OUTSIDE THE CONDO BOX!

-Make Detroit more enticing to families and make the riverfront/Belle Isle as THE place to hang out/recreate!

-take that Uniroyal Tire on I-94 and turn it back into a Ferris Wheel!

-there was a similar development on the approach to Belle Isle from 1906 to 1928

-Dismantle the decaying Ballroom on Boblo Island [[designed by Albert Kahn), and re-build in this new development

-There are deep-pocketed benefactors in the region who could fund this - The Ralph C. Wilson Foundation, Ford Foundation, Penske, etc.

Since I did fairly well in the 2018 thread vetsion; here goes:
[[easiest calls to more difficult in that order)
1) the war is upcoming because courtesy is a dying art. Scooter riders will seriously hurt someone, probably due to riding while using a cell phone.
2) Farewell Eastland Mall
3) Olympia development wins the Matty Mououn award for for Self Congratulation by touting the District Detroit’s Achievements for building ..... parking lots. And city council, to show theIllitch’s how tough they are, will draw the line in the sand and make the Illitch’s put windows in the hollowed out hotel near LCA. Shades of the Michigan Central Station.... or windows!
4) the State will find a way to screw up the marijuna biz and not have any policies to allow licensing to go forward till 2020.
5) the economy will go into a slight downturn, but not threaten the Hudson or Monroe blocks project. It will put a damper on any development near the rencen though.
6) joe Louis will not have redevelopment started on it till late 2020 and will not be torn down till end of 2019.
7) The lions will be SOL, meaning out of the playoffs but not before getting fans hopes up. The best local team will be U of M,a basketball team, and the wings, tigers and pistons all miss the playoffs.
8) Gretchen Whitmer will attempt to make political hay out of the Flint water prosecutions to hide the fact she will be ineffective at running the state. Speaking of which, those accused will have the best lawyers money can buy, and will be able to skirt by with ineffective penalties
9) on the National Stage , Biden announces a presidential run only after meeting with an image consultant and learning to keep his hands away from children in photos.
10) and for the left field out of bounds shot... [[if number 9 wasn’t too far out of bound for some) Another investigation into corruption at DTW will make headlines

see you in 2020 and good luck to all who tried to call their shots!

It's funny coming in here and reading this now. Everybody who predicted a recession was wrong and all the positive trends in the city held strong, especially real estate values and flipping.

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10. Urban outfitter, H&M and several retail stores open on Woodward

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The people who predicted a major retail opening at woodward were spot-on.

What nobody predicted: the massive UM innovation center co-develoepd by Related and Bedrock, GM's retooling of Hamtramck plant for electric cars, the TCF bank merger, FCA's merger, Brooks Patterson gets pancreatic cancer and dies, etc.

It's fun to read our thoughts from a year ago. I'll go over my own:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

1. The U.S. slips into recession by end of 2019. The recession is driven by slowing tech sector and is milder than the Great Recession for both Detroit and the U.S., but there is a slow down in development projects.

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I might be a little early on this, but I think there is evidence that this is happening.

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

2. Related to above, downtown Warren gets canceled.

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Whatever happened with this? I forgot all about it...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

3. Ford and GM continue to move their focus away from personal vehicles.

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They have continued focus on autonomous vehicles, but also took an intense focus on electric vehicles this year.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

4. Tesla implodes, GM purchases a controlling stake.

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Not yet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

5. Lyft IPO flops. Ford purchases minority stake in company.

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Boom.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

6. Detroit mulls ways to discourage surface lots downtown.

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This certainly got a bit of media attention this year, but no policy moves by the city to my knowledge.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

7. Matt Patricia is fired at the end of 2019.

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Throw the whole franchise away.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

8. Michigan men's basketball goes back to the Final Four.

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A little too rosy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

9. Michigan men's football wins the Big 10 championship because everyone else is so terrible. Team gets embarrassed in playoffs.

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Ugh. I can't believe I said that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

10. MSU continues to suck.

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Bingo.

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1. Eastland Center closes.

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Only a matter of time.

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2. BJ's Wholesale Club will announce several more locations in Metro Detroit.

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A bit tooo ambitious, but what they have done is ramped up advertising big time.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 313WX

3. Chick-Fil-A will continue to gradually ramp up its expansion in Metro Detroit.

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Winner winner, chicken dinner! :)

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4. All Sears/Kmart stores will be liquidated and shuttered.

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Well, in all fairness, no one expected an activist federal judge to allow the CEO of the company to continue using it as his own personal real estate firm.

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5. GM will announce it's exiting Canada, South America and South Korea.

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The UAW strike and US plant closures helped to kick this can down the road, but woth Machete Mary still at the helm, it's inevitable. These regions are unprofitable.

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6. Snyder will be further implicated in the Flint Water Crisis.

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The circus that is the Trump presidency and the untimely death of Elijah Cummings have taken attention away from this

Here's how I fared:

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After another disappointing season, Matt Patricia is himself booted away from his Lions head coach job.

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The Lions did have a very disappointing season, but Matt isn't going anywhere.

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[[Since I failed on this the past three years) Eastland closes.

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And I still failed on this. Go figure.

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Sears closes all of their remaining stores.

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I failed on this one too, but Sears did end up closing all but two of their Metro Detroit stores.

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GM announces additional layoffs, but perhaps still not quite at pre-bankruptcy levels.

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It happened to an extent.

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Another major retailer is driven out of business by the retail apocalypse.

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Quite a few, in fact: Dress Barn, Charlotte Russe [[only to reopen in some locations) and Gymboree to name a few.

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Tigers' and Red Wings' slow respective rebuilds continue, but they each once again fail to reach the playoffs.

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Boom.

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Pistons continue with a better-than-average performance while still missing the playoffs.

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They somehow managed to slither their way into the playoffs, but they collapsed in the first round.

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[[revival of an old 2016 prediction with some changes) Meijer breaks ground on their small-sized concept store on East Jefferson and Rivard.

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Hasn't happened.

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The promised District Detroit residential buildings either continue to not break ground or remain just abandoned construction frames.

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Boom again.

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A Second Great Recession starts towards the end of the year.

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I also failed on this one, but there may be signs that we may be heading there.

New predictions can be made here.

1. Another retail announces that it’s opening in Downtown Detroit.
2. A corporate entity announces that it’s building a ten story or so office complex in an area not far from the Federal Reserve.
3. The Lions will focus on drafting another quarterback while figuring an exit plan for Stanford.
4. The Tigers will make the playoffs.
5. Ford will give a sneak preview of it’s renovated train station location.
6. The building on the Hudson site will reach 40 stories by fall.
7. Federal charges is brought against Mayor Dugan and others in city government.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by stasu1213

1. Another retail announces that it’s opening in Downtown Detroit.
2. A corporate entity announces that it’s building a ten story or so office complex in an area not far from the Federal Reserve.
3. The Lions will focus on drafting another quarterback while figuring an exit plan for Stanford.
4. The Tigers will make the playoffs.
5. Ford will give a sneak preview of it’s renovated train station location.
6. The building on the Hudson site will reach 40 stories by fall.
7. Federal charges is brought against Mayor Dugan and others in city government.

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Considering you have the benefit of hindsight, you should have been better with your predictions.